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Thursday, 26 March 2020

Reality bites

Jobless claims to spike

Lots of wild speculation in markets talk about whether this is 'the bottom' etc. before things bounce and get back to trending higher. 

The crowd usually wrong at the beginning, and at the end (and we're not at the end yet). 

You've got to admire the optimism, but we haven't even had the first read on how hard the global economy is going to be hit by the coronavirus, let alone what's coming over the remainder of 2020.

Tonight we'll get one of the first meaningful data points in the form of initial jobless claims in the US.

Here's some context for what we might expect to see. 

The short answer is that nobody knows until the figures drop at 8.30am NYC time.

But we do know it's not going to be good.