Pete Wargent blogspot


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Monday, 30 March 2020

Stormy waters (oil back at a 17-year low)

Oil plunges anew

After a relief rally, the oil price has dropped back towards new cycle lows as the Coronavirus threatens to lead to a prolonged slump in demand.

A few more buying opportunities looking likely this week. 

The price of Brent Crude is now -67.2 per cent below its January highs (h/t @Scutty), and we're staring at the lowest price level in 17 years. 

Some analysts think that the oil price could hit $10/barrel over the coming months, which from my perspective would represent 'back up the truck' territory.

In other interesting twist, Rob Rennie of Westpac reported that this will the strongest month on record for Aussie iron ore exports (as measured in mt), as China gets back to business.

When we come out the other side of COVID-19 the resources sector looks a likely winner.

Stage 3 rolled out

There have been some more promising numbers for New Zealand and Australia on new cases of the virus.

The short, sharp shutdown looks likely to be the base case strategy to flatten the curve and buy valuable time for medical centres and hospitals.

Victoria ramped up its response to Stage Three, with spot fines of up to $1,600 for social distancing breaches, while gatherings of more than two are no longer to be allowed (excluding members of the same household).

Queenslanders now also face $1,300 spot fines for breaches. 

I discussed some of the other possible measures here. ]

It's all happening. 

How's your 2020 going so far?