Pete Wargent blogspot
Monday 31 May 2021
Housing credit growth picks up in April
Sunday 30 May 2021
Melbourne disruption
Friday 28 May 2021
Aussie household wealth heading to $15 trillion
The Big Picture Podcast
The Big Picture
I jumped on The Big Picture podcast with Michael Yardney to discuss the Budget and the latest economic and property trends.
Watch the video below (or visit the homepage version here):
You can subscribe for the free Yardney podcast here.
Thursday 27 May 2021
CapEx lifts in spite of disruptions
Melbourne heading for a fourth (fifth?) lockdown
Lockdown redux
It looks like Melbourne is heading for yet another lockdown, with the latest cluster of COVID cases reportedly climbing to about 25 overnight.
There's no easy way to measure this, but there's no logical reason to believe this won't lead to a further exodus from Melbourne.
South-east Queensland and many regional and coastal cities are already absolutely groaning under the weight of both interstate and intrastate movers, and the looming lockdown announcement will likely add fuel to the fire.
It sounds like this time around Melbournians are quickly scooting across the border towards Sydney (and after the previous iterations of Victorian lockdowns dragged on for so long, who can blame them?).
Property trends
This will likely have a twofold impact on rental markets.
According to SQM Research figures, Sydney's vacancy rate peaked at 3.7 per cent in September 2020 - impacted by the lack of international students and tourism - and has been easing since then, back down to 3.4 per cent as cheaper inner-city unit rents have successfully lured in tenants.
Melbourne's vacancy rate suddenly spiked to 4.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2021, following hard on the back of previous restrictions.
There were more than 25,000 Melbourne vacancies in April 2021 (down from 27,300 in March), but this figure could quite feasibly now jump higher again.
On the other hand, the Melbourne exodus underway will add to the rental market pressures being experienced across much of the rest of Australia.
Let's hope for some better virus news over the next week.
Wednesday 26 May 2021
Rental undersupply in 2022
Unit construction still slowing
It's been a strange year for rental properties.
It always seemed likely that the massive clampdown on property investors (and non-resident buyers) from around 2017 onwards would lead to an undersupply of rentals eventually, but it hasn't worked out exactly as one might've expected.
There's been a significant shift in demand away from the CBDs, while the absence of international students has left an obvious hole in the inner-city student rentals markets.
Regional rents are soaring, though, especially in Queensland and all the way up and down the New South Wales and Victorian coastlines.
There are also rentals shortages in inland cities such as Orange, and some of the capital cities too.
Detached house building has rebounded very strongly, due to the HomeBuilder stimulus.
But without non-resident investors to finance apartment projects attached dwelling construction continues to flail, hitting six-year lows in the March quarter.
Tuesday 25 May 2021
Podcast: The Ikigai Philosophy
Monday 24 May 2021
Loan sizes jump
While house prices hold strong, units may be staging a comeback
Sunday 23 May 2021
Property market calming
Friday 21 May 2021
Weekend reads
Don't skip the DD
Thursday 20 May 2021
Employment pulls back in April as JobKeeper expires
Wednesday 19 May 2021
NSW& VIC job vacancies strap on after-burners
Tuesday 18 May 2021
NSW stamp duty booming again
Monday 17 May 2021
Resi Risks & Opportunities Report May 2021
The 4Fs: Don't do dumb stuff
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