Podcast: Housing chill hits the economy, listings surge, & why upgraders may have the edge

Property Podcast

Here's what Chris and I discussed on the podcast this week:

"In this episode of the Australian Property Podcast, Pete Wargent and Chris Bates unpack a property market that is cooling, but not in a simple, one-speed way. Home values fell again in July, Sydney and Melbourne stayed at the front of the downturn, and listings jumped sharply, especially across key parts of Sydney.

The bigger question is who actually benefits from this shift. Pete and Chris explain why first-home buyers may not be getting the relief many expected, why the lower end of the market has held up better than the top end, and why upgraders could be looking at one of the more interesting windows of this cycle. They also dig into rising rents, worsening rental affordability, and how changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax are starting to reshape investor behaviour.

The conversation then widens to the broader economy, from slower lending and weaker housing activity to pressure on construction, consumer spending and state budgets. They also tackle listener questions on CGT transition rules, valuations, development sites and the growing need for proper tax advice in a more complex market.

If you want a grounded read on where fear is building, where leverage may be shifting and what to watch next, this episode is a timely one."

Click here to listen (or on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

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1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Listings rise sharply (SQM Research)

Listings rise sharply

SQM released its media update on new and total property listings for the month of July here.

Listings increased by a significant 12.4 per cent in July as stock is selling slower, to be 22.8 per cent higher than a year earlier.

Only Hobart didn't seen an increase in listings over the past year., while the largest increase was seen in Melbourne (+42.8 per cent), as land taxes bite. 

Brisbane also saw a large monthly increase in total properties for sale (+18 per cent):

The impact from the Budget on the top price quartile of the market has already been significant. 

In July capital city asking prices for houses fell -1½ per cent, while unit prices were broadly flat (-0.2 per cent). 

SQM Research highlighted Sydney's West, South West, and Hills District as areas where listings have surged to pr towards record highs (granted the west and south-west of the city have expanded hugely over the 16 years of available data). 

Source: SQM Research

Listings in Sydney's Eastern Suburbs, Lower North Shore, and Inner West have not recorded any increases just yet.

Asking prices for houses in Sydney are down by -4.3 per cent over the past quarter, and units and apartments at the higher price points have also seen some significant price drops. 

Source: SQM Research

In the rental market, asking rents continued to rise, for houses (+7.6 per cent over the year) and especially for units (+2.3 per cent over the quarter and +7.9 per cent over the year). 

Source: SQM Research

SQM is recording an ongoing fall in the number of properties listed for rent, although July is typically a weaker month for rental market demand. 

In Brisbane rental listings look set to break to all-time lows, while Hobart, Darwin, and Perth are all incredibly tight rental markets. 

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1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

ausbiz TV: Housing downturn impacting more than prices

ausbiz TV

I joined Juliette Saly at ausbiz TV to discuss how the premium sector of the housing market has accounted for most of the downturn to date.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

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1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Housing downturn led by upper quartile

Home values decline

Cotality released its latest home values index, with prices falling by -0.7 per cent in the month.

The downturn has now spread from the largest and most expensive cities into Brisbane and Adelaide, as well as Canberra:

Source: Cotality

Cotality noted that over the past three months prices in the upper quartile of the market had fallen by -3.2 per cent, while prices in the lowest quartile actually increased by 0.3 per cent.

Trent Saunders from CommBank Research put together this very useful chart to show the difference (and also the trend):

In this context, it's perhaps no surprise that the greatest year to date declines have been for houses in Sydney (-5.9 per cent) and houses in Melbourne (-5.9 per cent). 

Advertised rents rose another 0.4 per cent on the back of "extremely low" rental vacancy rates, to be 5.9 per cent higher over the year, stretching rental affordability to its worst level on record.

Cotality noted that rents were up $40/week over the pasty year and $200/week over the past five years. 

You can read the full Cotality report here.

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Also worth a read, Charter Keck Cramer's State of the Market report:

"The BTS apartment market faces ongoing and increasing headwinds. 

This is most easily observed in the alarmingly low levels of current and forecast BTS apartment supply across Australia’s capital cities."

For example in Sydney, the future supply of apartments is expected to run at only half of the annual underlying demand:

Source: Charter Keck Cramer

You can read the full report here.

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1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Podcast: Is now a smart time to buy property? Budget shock, rents and the flight to quality

Property Podcast

Here is what we discussed on the podcast this week:

"In this Australian Property Podcast episode, Pete Wargent and Chris Bates unpack one of the biggest questions in property right now: is this actually a good time to buy, or are buyers still stepping into a falling market too early?

They explore why so many sellers, buyers and agents seem frozen at once, why quality assets are behaving differently from the headline market data, and how fear around interest rates, inflation and the Federal Budget is changing behaviour across Sydney, Melbourne and beyond. 

Pete and Chris also explain why weak confidence today could become a major supply problem tomorrow, especially if developers, builders and investors keep stepping back.

The conversation goes beyond prices. 

They discuss tightening rental markets, why first-home buyers may still need to act even in a softer market, and why the best opportunities often appear when sentiment feels worst. 

Their core message is clear: focus on quality, think long term, and do not confuse scary headlines with the value of a genuinely strong asset.

They also answer listener questions on the six-year CGT rule, how to think about an investment property versus a future Melbourne home, and what buyers should watch if they are trying to move while the market still looks foggy."

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 18k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Building approvals remain in an uptrend for now (SEQ)

Approvals solid

Building approvals remained in an uptrend in June, with house approvals trending higher in Perth, Brisbane, and Sydney. 

The recent strength in unit approvals has been driven by Greater Brisbane and south-east Queensland, in areas such as Moreton Bay, Maroochydore, Gold Coast, and elsewhere. 

Overall, this was a stronger than expected result with approvals rising 7 per cent over the month to a seasonally adjusted 18,238.

Over the June quarter, about 52,800 dwellings were approved - delivering the new supply has proved harder to date, however, as costs and borrowing rates have risen. 

Since the introduction of the Housing Accord, approvals have averaged around 16,350 per month, well below the implied target of 20,000.

Still, 203,000 dwellings were approved over the financial year, which was the strongest result for some time. 

Looking forward there are headwinds from the Federal Budget tax changes, record high construction costs, and competition for trades and materials from a nascent boom in data centres, especially in Sydney and Melbourne.

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1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 18k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Inflation lower than expected (rates on hold)

Inflation softer than feared

We haven't had many pleasant surprises since Budget day, but we got one today.

Headline inflation came in lower than expected at 3.8 per cent over the year to June 2026.

The trimmed mean inflation figure also held at 3.6 per cent over the year, which was lower than market expectations, while the quarterly figure for trimmed mean inflation of 0.8 per cent was some way below the Reserve Bank's 1 per cent trajectory forecast. 

Source: ABS

To two decimal places, trimmed mean inflation was 0.81 per cent in the June quarter, which was the lowest result in over a year.

The main contributor to inflation was the housing component, which rose by 6.8 per cent over the year, which was the highest level in three years.

Electricity prices were more than 22 per cent higher than a year ago as rebates ended, rents were up to a record high, and of course the price of new dwellings is now up by 47 per cent since April 2021. 

The NSW Productivity Commission found that last year it cost $1.05 million to build a typical mid-rise apartment in Sydney, up from $917,000 in 2023.

Source: NSW Productivity Commission

Developer feasibility is higher in Sydney's eastern suburbs because of the very high apartment prices that developer's can achieve in premium locations, but planning regulations are often also restrictive in these areas. 

The wrap

Financial markets moved to price out any possibility of an interest rate hike in August on the lower than expected inflation figures, with interest rates set to be on hold for the time being.

Overall, this appeared to be a remarkably soft inflation result given the backdrop of the Iranian conflict, although perhaps there could be some more to come in terms of cost pressures.  

James Foster ran through the inflation figures in far greater detail here. 

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Vale Westpac's Bill Evans, a brilliant economist and career, of course, and also a down to earth fellow.

A sad day, bon voyage Bill. 

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 18k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Podcast: Where prices are falling and where buyers can find opportunity

Property Podcast

Here is what Chris and I covered on the podcast this week:

"In this Australian Property Podcast episode, Pete Wargent and Chris Bates unpack what the post-Budget property reset is starting to look like on the ground, and where patient buyers may finally be getting some leverage again.

They break down quieter winter listings, soft auction clearance rates and the widening gap between A-grade properties and everything else. The big question is not just whether prices are falling, but where the pullback is creating genuine opportunity for upgraders, first-home buyers and investors willing to stay disciplined.

Pete and Chris also cover the pockets seeing the most change across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and the Gold Coast, plus why units, renovators and better-quality homes may behave very differently from compromised stock. They also explain why lower borrowing costs alone may not be enough, and why quality listings could become the real battleground as spring stock arrives.

To wrap up, they answer listener questions on new builds, older Melbourne units and the tax headlines worrying Australian expats. 

If you are trying to read a softer market without getting swept up in the panic, this episode offers a practical look at what may matter next. It is a useful episode for anyone planning a move before the market narrative shifts again."

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 18k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.