Budget night live

Budget night review

A date for your diary - May 12 in the evening when we will watch the Federal Budget and give our thoughts on the property and other tax changes resulting therefrom.

You will be able to watch along live at Facebook here or YouTube here:

Rents rose 2.1pc in the March quarter

Rents accelerated

Rents increased by 2.2 per cent in Australia's capital cities in the March 2026 quarter, with strong increases recorded in every city.

Rents in Perth and Brisbane rose by 6.7 per cent over the year respectively.

From Cotality's rental review report:

Sydney had the highest rental price, rising 5.9 per cent over the year to $824/week, with Melbourne the lowest at $632/week.

Rents have thus reaccelerated and have increased by about 50 per cent since 2020.

You can download the Cotality report here.

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1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 4.9 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 17,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

2-Sense podcast: How long will the Sydney & Melbourne downturn last?

2-Sense podcast

This week on the podcast Chris and I took on the property downturn in Sydney and Melbourne and spit-balled a few scenarios.

Here's what we covered:

Sydney and Melbourne have finally lost momentum, but the big question is whether this is a short, sharp wobble or the start of a much longer reset. In this week’s Australian Property Podcast, Pete Wargent and Chris Bates break down the pressure points shaping the market right now, from weak auctions and stretched affordability to build-cost blowouts and a rental market that is still running incredibly tight.

They explore why some luxury projects are still selling while broader construction remains sluggish, what another leg higher in costs could mean for developers, and whether supply is really coming fast enough to ease the housing crunch. They also tackle the interest-rate backdrop, the possibility of deeper real price falls in Sydney and Melbourne, and why uncertainty can create very different outcomes for first-home buyers, upgraders and investors.

The episode finishes with two listener questions that hit the heart of today’s market: whether to hold or sell a struggling outer-fringe Melbourne investment, and why Melbourne CBD apartments still trade so cheaply versus Sydney. If you want a grounded read on where the property cycle stands, and what practical moves make sense from here, this is the episode to queue next.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

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1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 4.9 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 17,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Markets recoup record highs

Record highs

They say that markets are forward-looking, and in that context the US S&P 500 stock market index bottomed on March 27 and has been rising practically ever since. 

The market powered on as the week progressed, recovering to hit three consecutive all-time highs, in doing so notching the best single month for the index since 2020 (up by more than 6 per cent). 

The NASDAQ index has recorded 13 consecutive daily increases, to also close at a record high - representing yet another amazing rebound for tech sector sentiment. 

In effect, the indices have been saying for some time, that as far as markets are concerned anyway, 'war is over'.

While there is still some uncertainty over how the blockade will unfold, the declaration of the Strait of Hormuz being open saw the crude oil price plummet to below $80, before bouncing to $83. 

Mark the Ballot (@Mark_Graph on X) charted the latest fuel prices for Australia, which showed that after the cutting of the fuel excise took effect, prices are steadily on the way back down now, both for unleaded and diesel fuel.

Source: X, @Mark_Graph

It's true that we've been head-faked plenty before by news from the Middle East, but the overnight news obviously very positive for sentiment. 

A caveat is that there is still uncertainty as to whether a blockade will continue on Iranian ships and ports, and there is also a nasty inflationary spike in the short-term that will need to be navigated. 

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 4.8 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 17,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Unemployed remained at 4.3pc in March

Employment holds the line

Australia's civilian population increased by an estimated +1.84 per cent over the year to March 2026, according to the latest ABS labour force survey. 

With population growth having remained so strong, it's taken a high level of government spending to keep employment growth up to speed, but to date it has certainly done so.

Employment increased +17,900 in March, a bit below expectations, but this came off the back of a strong number in February, and the March result was driven by a strong +53,000 increased in full-time employment.

Moreover, the quarterly growth in employment of +93,000 was the strongest since the September quarter of 2024. 

The unemployment rate was broadly unchanged in March, falling slightly from a seasonally adjusted 4.28 per cent to 4.26 per cent.

We have booming Queensland to thank for that, where the unemployment rate fell to a remarkably low level at just 3.7 per cent.

At the other end of the spectrum, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Victoria inched slightly higher to 4.8 per cent.

Finally the underemployment rate held at a low 5.9 per cent, while the underutilisation rate has crept a bit higher since December, rising from 9.8 per cent to 10.3 per cent.

The wrap

Overall, these were solid enough numbers, which will lock in an interest rate hike for next month.

It's worth noting, though, that this labour force survey was in the field from March 1 to March 14, and confidence and conditions have deteriorated significantly through the past 4 weeks since then. 

The unemployment rate is expected to lift towards 5 per cent as the year goes on.

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 4.8 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 17,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Short-term arrivals into Oz have recovered (China rising!)

More trips Down Under

February was landmark month for short-term visitors into Australia, with 943,000 trips representing an increase of +19.7 per cent from last year.

And, notably, short-term arrivals are now +1.7 per cent higher than the equivalent pre-COVID level of February 2019. 

Thus after a long six years the recovery in visitor arrivals is now largely complete.

It was interesting to note that Lunar New Year saw more than 220,000 trips from China in February.

This was also above the pre-COVID highs, and not too far off the record number of trips from China in February 2018 of 226,000. 

Including permanent and long-term arrivals, there were some 266,000 arrivals from China in February, which was an all-time high. 

Australia's relationship with China cooled and then deteriorated badly between around 2017 and 2022, but has steadily recovered since the election of PM Anthony Albanese, and trade barriers have been gradually removed. 

Over the year arrivals from China are still below the pre-pandemic highs, but on this evidence they seem to be recovering in a robust manner now. 

Immigration eases slightly

Permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia recovered to pre-pandemic levels long ago, and have been tracking at record highs.

February is always a huge month for permanent and long-term arrivals into the country, and the figure for 2026 was no exception at 152,000.

This was a bit below the highest ever figure for a single month of 159,000 recorded in February 2025, but was still almost a third higher than the 2019 figure. 

There were also more departures this year, taking the net long-term arrivals for the month to +96,000 (for the third highest February on record). 

The net figure for permanent and long-term arrivals over the year eased to +478,910. 

The wrap

It's been a long road back for tourism and short-term trips into Australia since 2020 and 2021 when arrivals were close to zero per month.  

With trips from China rebounding to record highs, tourism in Sydney and Melbourne looks set to thrive again. 

Permanent and long-term arrivals are just off their highs, but remain at elevated levels, meaning that rents are likely to surge further in 2026 as rental vacancy rates remain extremely tight.

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 4.8 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 17,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Confidence crashes...along with rental vacancies

Confidence crunch

Westpac's consumer confidence index had already crashed by a further -12½ per cent by last month to sit unnervingly close to all-time lows,

Meanwhile NAB's business survey showed a "staggering" collapse of -29 points on the business confidence index. 

Maybe not all that surprising, you might say, but you can read the details from Westpac here and here. 

Rental reacceleration

In other news, SQM Research released its latest rental markets data, which showed asking rents in Sydney rising by a further 0.9 per cent in the month to be 7.4 per cent higher than a year earlier. 

Melbourne, Brisbane, and Perth also showed large increases in rents over the year, while Hobart and Darwin recorded double-digit increases in asking rents. 

In the month of March there was a notable and significant drop in rental vacancies in Sydney from 9,491 to just 8,469, or a rental vacancy rate of just 1.1 per cent.

Source: SQM Research

Rental vacancy rates remained extremely tight in Brisbane (0.8 per cent), and fell even further in Adelaide (0.7 per cent), Perth (0.5 per cent), Darwin (0.4 per cent), and Hobart (0.4 per cent). 

The big bear case for nominal property prices in 2026 is centred around rising interest rates, but providing some support are now extremely low rental vacancy rates, steepling construction costs, and - to date anyway - an unemployment rate of just 4.3 per cent. 

Rental vacancy rates looks set to fall further as interest rates rise and as the government threatens a property tax overhaul at the May Budget.

Louis Christopher of SQM Research commented:

"The national vacancy rate dropping to 1.0% highlights just how tight Australia’s rental market has become. We are now seeing vacancy rates at critically low levels in several cities, particularly Perth, Darwin and Hobart. 

While some markets are showing brief pauses in rental growth, the overall trend remains upward due to the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand. 

Without a significant increase in new housing supply and/or a stabilisation of population growth rates, it is likely that rental pressures will remain elevated throughout 2026. These accelerated rates of rental increases will no doubt feed through to the CPI at some point this year.”

You can read SQM's media release here. 

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 4.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 16,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Rentals remain extremely tight

Rentals remain tight

Cotality released its latest Monthly Chart Pack, which still had housing values up +2.1 per cent over the March quarter, and +9.9 per cent over the year. 

Source: Cotality

The flow of new listings was, surprisingly, lower than average for the time of year. 

Total listings were also -11.5 per cent lower than a year earlier, meaning that it's still often tough to find quality properties for sale. 

Rental markets remained extremely tight, with rental vacancy rates near all-time lows, and rents rising +5.7 per cent over the year to March.

This is before potential tax reform to be delivered in the May budget, which may target capital gains tax on investors. 

Source: Cotality

You can download the latest Chart Pack here.

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 4.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 16,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.