Approvals hold up; dwelling starts uncertain

Approvals hanging in there

Detached house approvals dipped in September, but strength in Perth and Brisbane home approvals held the national total figure at a buoyant 10,432, seasonally adjusted. 

The most recent three months of data, however, suggest that in real time momentum is now decreasing across all states and territories.

Unit approvals bounced in September, but it's likely that we'll be on the way down from here, as the appetite to buy new units has plummeted since the Budget.

Overall, there were 17,948 approvals in September, which was a solid enough headline result. 

Granted, many of these medium- and higher-density projects will now likely be scrapped.

Despite the pick-up in building approvals in 2026, the trajectory has still been a long way short of the government's target.

There was a leap in the value of work approved for data centres, which is separately pulling some of the focus away from housing construction.

The wrap

Overall, 2026 has been a stronger year for building approvals, but momentum in the less volatile detached house segment is now fading all across the country, while apartment pre-sales have also dived over the past few months. 

James Foster ran through the building approvals figures in more detail here. 

Cotality released its home values index update for the month of October, which recorded a 7th consecutive monthly drop. 

The biggest monthly declines have now shifted from the largest capital cities across to Brisbane (-2 per cent) and Perth (-1.7 per cent). 

Source: Cotality

The beginning of the downturn was driven by the upper price quartile of the market, with detached house prices in Sydney now -11 per cent lower than a year earlier (versus bullish forecasts for gains in 2026). 

Dr Alex Joiner of IFM Investors tabulated the figures below:

Source: IFM Investors

However, various sources now seem to be suggesting that many of the cheaper regional markets which soared across the past few years as investors piled in are now leading recent price declines. 

Markets are betting on an interest rate hike on Melbourne Cup Day interest rate hike being the final hike in the cycle. 

Meanwhile, major banks are busily downgrading economic growth forecasts, with NAB now projecting that the unemployment rate will rise to 5.4 per cent in 2027 (the banks themselves cutting roles will likely be a part of this)

For that matter, banks are also downgrading their previously upbeat housing market forecasts, with Westpac now expecting a decline of -10.9 per cent for the year to March 2027, before prices then rebound in 2027 and 2028. 

Commonwealth Bank expects the recovery to be pushed out until September 2027, with a peak-to-trough decline of -9 per cent, while NAB and ANZ also see a peak-to-trough decline of around 10 to 11 per cent.

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And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

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You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

No listings, nervous buyers: what’s really happening to property prices?

Property podcast

Good stuff from Chris on the podcast this week!

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

NLW Podcast: How to become a compounding genius

NLW Podcast

A quiet launch for my new podcast...just me this week, but in future weeks we have some awesome guests coming on the show.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

RBA to hike again as fuel prices surge

Inflation resurgent

As expected by financial markets, there wasn't much good news for households with a mortgage - or for the Treasurer, for that matter! - in the September inflation figures. 

Headline inflation increased to 4.3 per cent for the 12 months to September 2026 (up from 4 per cent over the 12 months to August). 

Trimmed mean inflation was 3.6 per cent over the 12 months to September, with the August figure revised down slightly to 3½ per cent.

Source: ABS

It came as little surprise that the gargantuan increase in auto fuel prices has been largely to blame for the reacceleration in inflation.

There wasn't much bright news to be found here, but one of the ways in which monetary policy works - apart from via the currency channel - is through the housing market, and new dwelling price inflation does appear to have slowed to a dead halt. 

The housing component of the consumer price index has been one key source of inflation since 2021. 

Demand for new homes has collapsed since the Federal Budget in May, and these dynamics are now feeding their way into new dwelling prices (there is notably more price discounting around for new homes now, despite high materials prices):

Source: ABS

Thus, while new dwelling prices have soared by almost 50 per cent since 2021, it looks as though this key source of inflation has been effectively tackled.

New dwelling prices were flat or negative in all of the largest capital cities in September, ex-Sydney.

While it's potentially good news for savers that they can now get a return on their term deposits as interest rates have increased, the flip side is that the purchasing power of cash in the bank is still being inflated away very quickly. 

In fact, if you were to look at the growth in the money supply, it has increased by more than 60 per cent since the beginning of the pandemic.

The wrap

Overall, the September inflation figures were broadly as expected, but still too hot for comfort.

Market pricing is now looking for a further interest rate hike on Melbourne Cup day, taking the cash rate target to a new cycle high of 4.85 per cent. 

Households with a mortgage have benefited a good deal from their debt being rapidly inflated away over the past 5 or 6 years, but are now taking the related pain of higher mortgage rates.

They'll be hoping that the RBA can rip the band aid off with a fifth interest rate hike for the year, potentially putting Australia is a stronger position to bring interest rates back down later into 2027. 

James Foster ran through the inflation figures in more detail here.

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Horrific polling numbers for the government were released today, with the 2-party preferred vote falling away dramatically in the aftermath of shocking incident in Wangaratta.

The polling period was before the release of the inflation figures, so there's further bad news in the post for the government to follow. 

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

Is the property market nearing a bottom? Brisbane, Perth and the signals to watch

Property podcast

Here's what we discussed on this week's podcast:

"Pete and Chris start with a spring selling season that has not brought the usual rush of new listings. They discuss softer new-home inquiries, the pressures facing smaller developers and a housing pipeline that may look plentiful in the near term yet thinner further out. Chris explains why a buyer who wants to refinance should understand their options before a change in work or borrowing capacity makes that harder.

They then ask whether bond yields and interest-rate expectations could signal a turn for property. Pete explores the possibility of a market bottom, while both hosts are careful about how difficult it is to identify one in real time. A fall in prices can mean different things for an investor, a first home buyer or someone selling one home to buy another.

Listener questions bring the discussion back to practical signals: days on market, local sales, clearance rates, affordability, borrowing conditions and whether good properties start moving again. Chris argues that watching your own suburb can reveal a shift before a national headline does. It is a useful framework for thinking about the next property cycle, not a promise about where prices go next."

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

ALP polling hits record low

Polling woes for Albo

The government's primary vote polled at a new record low of 24 per cent on the latest YouGov poll, on a sample taken over the week from October 13th to October 20th:

While this is an all-time low for the ALP, the next election could be more complicated than those that have gone before, due to the opposition vote being split between different parties.

As such, a lot will likely depend on preferences. 

It had seemed as though, mercifully, we might have reached the peak for the interest rate cycle in Australia.

Source: ASX

Unfortunately for the government, with the oil price back above $110/barrel and trading at the highest level since May, the pain may not be over yet.

Indeed, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Deputy Gov Andrew Hauser noted pointedly in a fireside chat interview today that inflation outlook is "materially worse than we projected in the August report", quickly moving market pricing for November to more than a 50/50 bet for another hike on Melbourne Cup Day.  

To be honest, if I was the Governor - thankfully not a problem I'll ever have to face down - at this stage I would likely just crack on with hiking again until inflation expectations are definitely broken. Plenty of room to bring rates down again next year if needed. 

In fairness, it's clear that the interest rate hikes delivered to date are already beginning to do their job. 

Coming off the back of the 5-year high in the unemployment rate, National Australia Bank announced yesterday that it would be firing 6 per cent of its internal workforce, with 2,500 jobs to go. It wouldn't be a surprise if other banks follow suit. 

Stockland has already reported that enquiries on its estates had fallen by -71 per cent from a year earlier to hit a 7-year low (sales were also down -24 per cent over the quarter). 

Meanwhile, Nick Scali reported today that domestic demand has slowed drastically:

And so on...

In any case, the outcome of the next Federal election will have significant implications for asset markets, with the Coalition pledging to repeal the tax reforms to negative gearing, capital gains tax, and discretionary trusts (while One Nation have proposed allowing negative gearing on up to two established investment properties per taxpayer). 

A tricky month or two ahead for the government, one senses.

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

Podcast: Spring turning point for property?

Property Podcast

Here is what Chris and I discussed on the podcast this week:

"Is the spring property market offering buyers a window — or is the real test still ahead? On the Australian Property Podcast, Pete Wargent and Chris Bates look past the headlines to ask what is actually listing, selling and sitting unsold as the year draws towards Christmas.

Chris explains why the next few weeks could matter for sellers who are considering when to list. Pete weighs the buyer’s side of a softer market: more choice and room to negotiate can coexist with uncertainty about borrowing capacity and where prices go next. They discuss why first-home buyers and upgraders may be making very different decisions, and why confidence can change faster than the supply of good homes.

The conversation also looks at the housing construction pipeline. Pete and Chris consider the gap between dwellings under construction now and the projects that may struggle to get built later, with financing, feasibility and developer risk all part of the picture. They discuss proposed migration cuts and why rental demand does not necessarily move in step with demand from home buyers.

In the listener Q&A, the hosts compare price movements across cities and property types, then turn to the choices facing people approaching retirement with multiple properties".

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

New home sales tumbling

New home sales drop

After 4 months  of falls, new home sales had a slightly better month in September.

Overall, new home sales fell -17½ per cent in the September quarter, with the states of Queensland (-26 per cent) and Victoria (-23 per cent) leading the declines. 

Source: Housing Industry Association

At present there is still a large volumes of new properties in the pipeline, but looking ahead it appears that - with higher mortgage rates and a lending assessment buffer in place - we're heading back to a shortage:

You can read the HIA's media release here. 

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here.