New home sales crunch begins

New home sales fall

New home sales had been on a pretty solid run up until April 2026, but fell for a third consecutive month in July, as the new tax setting begin to bite on sentiment.

Source: HIA

New home sales appear likely to drop sharply over the next couple of years as market sentiment has tanked.

Mirvac and Stockland also reported this week that new home enquiries have slumped over recent months, with fewer new homes expected to built ahead.

In the short term, there's quite a pipeline of homes to be completed, but over the medium term, it looks like the crunch is underway.

Reported the Housing Industry Association:

“Households continue to face the cumulative impact of three interest rate increases this year. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding recent housing policy changes has encouraged many prospective purchasers to delay, or cancel, major financial decisions.

“In the three months to July, house prices nationally declined by 2.0 per cent, the largest quarterly fall since 2022. Because the new and established home markets are linked, a decline in established prices will lead a decline in new home sales and a slowing in home building. 

“The adverse shock to established home prices, due to the Federal Budget, is likely to be one factor slowing sales of new homes."

You can read the HIA media release here. 

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Unemployment rate rises to 4½ per cent

Unemployment rate rises

Following last month's bumper 'increase' in employment, the ABS reported employment falling back by -15,800 in July.

The unemployment rate continues to trend gently higher, with the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rising to 4½ per cent in July.

The number of unemployed persons, seasonally adjusted, rose to 691,500 (up from 646,500 a year earlier). 

The youth unemployment rate is much higher at 10.4 per cent.

Hours worked fell -0.6 per cent in the month, but measures of under-employment and underutilisation weren't much changed in July. 

Finally, the estimated growth in the civilian population aged 15 or over remained very strong at +403,400 or +1.8 per cent.

The wrap

Overall, this was a softer than expected monthly result.

The Reserve Bank's SOMP forecast had the unemployment rate rising to 4½ per cent by the December 2026 quarter...but we're already there.

The 3-year bond yield ticked down by a few basis points to 4.53 per cent.

James Foster ran through the figures in a bit more detail here. 

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

NAB out there with rents commentary

Asking rents higher over the year

In recent weeks there have been media reports of rents surging to record highs everywhere from the UK to New York City, despite many regulatory policies specifically designed to favour tenants.

Australia is about to embark on its own journey in this popular space, following the reform of property taxation and capital gains taxes in the May Federal Budget.

It's still very early days, of course, especially given that there are restrictions on giving tenants notice, and limitations on when and how much rents can be increased by, and so on.

SQM Research released its latest rental market update for the month of July, which showed that asking rents were +7.2 per cent higher than a year earlier.

House rents were +6.8 per cent higher nationally, and unit rents were up by +7.7 per cent over the year to July.

Especially strong double-digit growth was recorded for rentals in Brisbane, Darwin, and Hobart.

Rental vacancy rates remained tight at 1.3 per cent nationally, with exceptionally tight rental markets and vacancy rates of under 1 per cent continuing in Darwin, Hobart, Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide. 

July isn't typically a busy month for the rental market, so it will be interesting to see how this all develops over the coming year. 

National Australia Bank put the cat among the pigeons in its commentary this week in stating that rents could rise by up to 30 per cent over the next couple of years as rentals dry up, though the government has denied that this will occur. 

In reality, some markets will probably see some very large increases while others may not. 

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Wage price growth below forecasts

Private sector sluggish

The ABS released the figures for wage prices in the June quarter.

Overall, wage price growth was 0.81 per cent seasonally adjusted across the June quarter, in line with the median market forecast, and representing another fairly steady result for a fifth consecutive quarter.

Over the year wage price growth slowed a bit further to 3.19 per cent, which was notably a little below Reserve Bank forecasts for 3.3 per cent (as recently published in the latest Statement on Monetary Policy).

The quarterly growth in wages was in part driven by bargaining agreements and the public sector, where wage price growth was a seasonally adjusted 0.92 per cent for the quarter.

On the other hand, private sector wage price growth was just 0.69 per cent, which was the lowest quarterly growth since 2021.

This suggests that perhaps there's just a little more slack in the labour force in the private sector of late.

However, it's worth noting that the Fair Work Commission award wages increase of a higher-than-expected 4¾ per cent will provide a boost to wages growth in the September quarter. 

Wage price increases were fairly consistent over the year around the country ranging from the highest rates of growth in South Australia (3.6 per cent) and Queensland (3.4 per cent) to the lowest in Tasmania (2.9 per cent) and the Northern Territory (2.8 per cent) respectively.

More than 80 per cent of jobs are now seeing wages increases of under 4 per cent, which was the highest share in four years. 

Overall, these figures were broadly in line with expectations, and perhaps appear to be consistent with a gradually softening labour market.

James Foster ran through the figures in a little more detail here. 

The ABS will release the Labour Force figures for the month of July on Thursday morning (previewed here).

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Podcast: RBA on hold, Melbourne rebound signs, & why buyers should watch listings now

Property Podcast

Here's what we covered this week:

"In this Australian Property Podcast episode, Pete Wargent and Chris Bates unpack one of the biggest questions in property right now: is the current slowdown creating a genuine buying window, or are buyers still too early?

They break down the Reserve Bank’s August hold, what the latest press conference signals for rates, and why soft sentiment is colliding with an 11-week high in auction clearance rates. Melbourne is a major focus, with the pair exploring whether better auction results, stronger yields and years of underperformance could finally set the city up for a rebound.

Pete and Chris also dig into the listings story. They explain why higher stock levels matter, why some data sets are telling slightly different stories, and why buyers should watch what actually sells, what passes in and where competition is still real. Their broader message is that headline fear can hide the fact that quality assets may already be finding support.

The episode also covers mortgage competition, bank forecasts of deeper price falls, and why investor-heavy markets in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth may still be the ones to watch most carefully from here. 

In the listener Q&A, they tackle off-the-plan risk in Castle Hill and the leading indicators that matter most after the Budget.

If you want a practical market update on rates, listings, buyer psychology and where the next opportunities may emerge, this is a timely listen".

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Property rebalancing begins

Rebalancing markets

New property listings are already falling away compared to last year in Sydney (-14.1 per cent) and Melbourne (-8.1 per cent) as the property market has softened.

Now it is the turn of vendors in Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth to try their luck.

Source: Cotality

The rental market remains very tight, with rents still up by 5.9 per cent over the year to July, outpacing wages growth.

Source: Cotality

Cotality reported that rental yields are now starting to hit multi-year highs:

"National gross rental yields (3.72%) reached their highest level since April 2023, supported by rising rents and easing home values. This is up from the 2022 low of 3.2%".

Over the past 3 months the most expensive quartile of properties has been hit hard in Sydney (-5.2 per cent) and Melbourne (-4.6 per cent).

However the cheapest 25 per cent of properties has seen very little impact on prices.

Source: Cotality

You can check out the Chart Pack from Cotality here. 

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Average weekly earnings growth lowest since 2022 (ABS)

Earnings growth slows

Average weekly full-time earnings rose to $2,038 in May 2026, according to the ABS release today:

Source: ABS

However, the annual average earnings growth of 3.7 per cent was the lowest since 2022.

Moreover, the six-monthly movement is clearly in a significantly softening trend (slowing to 1.6 per cent), and particularly so for the private sector.

Source: ABS

This means that, after accounting for inflation, real earnings have been well down over the past few years.

Nominal full-time earnings are up by more than $300 since 2022, but in many cases household bills are up a lot more sharply than that.

The slowdown in earnings growth also suggests that the labour market is no longer as tight as it has been, as previously suggested by the ABS underutilisation data in the labour force survey.

In a similar vein, Seek reported job vacancies as being down -6 per cent from a year earlier.

Source: Macquarie Macro

---

CBA reported that mortgage application volumes are down by around -15 per cent since the May Federal Budget, although they do appear to have stabilised lately at a lower level.

Source: ASX

Similarly, Nerida Conisbee at Ray White noted that the average number of attendees per open home fell sharply after the Budget, but these number also appear to have found some sort of a base in August.

Source: Nerida Conisbee, Ray White

Nerida previously noted that with the cost to build a new dwelling rising by more than 50 per cent since 2019, new dwelling costs will limit the downturn in housing prices. 

Realistically, though, investors won't become active in the established housing market until mortgage rates fall substantially, or rents rise sharply.

Anecdotally, agents preparing for the spring selling season expect to have a surge of ex-rental properties being listed for sale, in part because (depending upon the state) it can take up to 90 days to provide tenants with due notice.

In real time rents seem likely to jump by 20 per cent or more in the inner-suburban capital cities, particularly for family housing and in sought-after school zones. 

In one seems like a re-run of 1985 to 1987, today the AFR reported a $6.8 billion stampede of funds ploughing into Aussie stock exchange ETFs last month as investors step away from the property market.

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

RBA on hold at 4.35pc

Rates on hold

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate target on hold today as expected at 4.35 per cent.

The Statement on Monetary Policy included a few interesting details, including for the housing market.

Housing prices have fallen -1.6 per cent from their peak according to the RBA, driven by the higher price points in Sydney and Melbourne so far, though these figures may be somewhat lagged. 

The aggregate figures appear to show that the median borrower has around a year's worth of prepayment buffers - essentially funds in offset and redraw accounts - which will likely help with the smoothing of consumption for some time, even in the higher mortgage rate environment.

Housing credit growth to investors has slowed since the Budget as expected, but so too has lending to homebuyers, according to APRA data. 

These figures are also likely to be lagged, and will show further falls as the LRBA lending ban kicks into gear in full, in turn reducing new housing sales and supply.

Stamp duty take has already notably dropped off a cliff in New South Wales in particular, with both New South Wales and Queensland staring down the barrel of rating agency cuts as revenues fall away.

Core inflation is expected to ease back to the target by June 2027, and indeed inflation forecasts have been revised down a little from earlier forecasts. 

However, there are still some cost pressures afoot, including notably for new housing costs, with price building cost inflation in the sector rising back up to 1.8 per cent in the June 2026 quarter, and 5.3 per cent over the year.

This comes off the back of already-large price increases in new dwelling costs over the past half-decade.

There may yet be some further cost pressures for trades and materials ahead given the huge boom in approvals for data centres in Sydney and Melbourne. 

A further interest rate hike in September is priced at about a 1 in 4 chance. 

---

In other news the NAB Survey showed business confidence falling back a little, from already very low levels, to -6 points.  

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.