ALP polling hits record low

Polling woes for Albo

The government's primary vote polled at a new record low of 24 per cent on the latest YouGov poll, on a sample taken over the week from October 13th to October 20th:

While this is an all-time low for the ALP, the next election could be more complicated than those that have gone before, due to the opposition vote being split between different parties.

As such, a lot will likely depend on preferences. 

It had seemed as though, mercifully, we might have reached the peak for the interest rate cycle in Australia.

Source: ASX

Unfortunately for the government, with the oil price back above $110/barrel and trading at the highest level since May, the pain may not be over yet.

Indeed, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Deputy Gov Andrew Hauser noted pointedly in a fireside chat interview today that inflation outlook is "materially worse than we projected in the August report", quickly moving market pricing for November to more than a 50/50 bet for another hike on Melbourne Cup Day.  

To be honest, if I was the Governor - thankfully not a problem I'll ever have to face down - at this stage I would likely just crack on with hiking again until inflation expectations are definitely broken. Plenty of room to bring rates down again next year if needed. 

In fairness, it's clear that the interest rate hikes delivered to date are already beginning to do their job. 

Coming off the back of the 5-year high in the unemployment rate, National Australia Bank announced yesterday that it would be firing 6 per cent of its internal workforce, with 2,500 jobs to go. It wouldn't be a surprise if other banks follow suit. 

Stockland has already reported that enquiries on its estates had fallen by -71 per cent from a year earlier to hit a 7-year low (sales were also down -24 per cent over the quarter). 

Meanwhile, Nick Scali reported today that domestic demand has slowed drastically:

And so on...

In any case, the outcome of the next Federal election will have significant implications for asset markets, with the Coalition pledging to repeal the tax reforms to negative gearing, capital gains tax, and discretionary trusts (while One Nation have proposed allowing negative gearing on up to two established investment properties per taxpayer). 

A tricky month or two ahead for the government, one senses.

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    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

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You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

Podcast: Spring turning point for property?

Property Podcast

Here is what Chris and I discussed on the podcast this week:

"Is the spring property market offering buyers a window — or is the real test still ahead? On the Australian Property Podcast, Pete Wargent and Chris Bates look past the headlines to ask what is actually listing, selling and sitting unsold as the year draws towards Christmas.

Chris explains why the next few weeks could matter for sellers who are considering when to list. Pete weighs the buyer’s side of a softer market: more choice and room to negotiate can coexist with uncertainty about borrowing capacity and where prices go next. They discuss why first-home buyers and upgraders may be making very different decisions, and why confidence can change faster than the supply of good homes.

The conversation also looks at the housing construction pipeline. Pete and Chris consider the gap between dwellings under construction now and the projects that may struggle to get built later, with financing, feasibility and developer risk all part of the picture. They discuss proposed migration cuts and why rental demand does not necessarily move in step with demand from home buyers.

In the listener Q&A, the hosts compare price movements across cities and property types, then turn to the choices facing people approaching retirement with multiple properties".

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

New home sales tumbling

New home sales drop

After 4 months  of falls, new home sales had a slightly better month in September.

Overall, new home sales fell -17½ per cent in the September quarter, with the states of Queensland (-26 per cent) and Victoria (-23 per cent) leading the declines. 

Source: Housing Industry Association

At present there is still a large volumes of new properties in the pipeline, but looking ahead it appears that - with higher mortgage rates and a lending assessment buffer in place - we're heading back to a shortage:

You can read the HIA's media release here. 

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

Unemployment rises to 4.72pc (new 5-year high)

Weak employment figures

So, it was a much weaker than expected labour force survey, with employment falling -39,000 in September. 

The 3-month average job 'gain' is now negative at -9,000.

The youth unemployment rate climbed to a new cycle high of above 11 per cent, and the underutilisation rate rose to 11 per cent.

The estimated growth in the civilian population aged 15 or over is still sprinting along at +1.7 per cent or +388,000 over the year.

As such the unemployment rate rose to a new 5-year high of 4.72 per cent.

This is now a couple of notches higher than the Reserve Bank's forecast for the end of the year, while the quarterly average unemployment rate for the September quarter of 4.6 per cent was also well above previous expectations. 

The wrap

Overall, this was a much softer than expected set of numbers, with markets looking for interest rates to be on hold for the rest of the year, and a further hike before mid-2027 no longer favoured.

Sine the beginning of the year the unemployment rate has increased quite significantly now from 4.1 per cent to 4.7 per cent, while interest rates have also been increased to new cycle highs of late. 

Australia's 3-year bond yield fell by about 10 basis points during today's trade, and is now trading at around 4.8 per cent.

It seems that the jobs market is no longer so tight - for inflation so much now depends on whether energy and fuel prices come back down. 

James Foster looked at the finer details here. 

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

Rental supply picks up in Sydney, Melbourne

Rental availability

Last week's Building Activity stats from the ABS showed a record 248,000 dwellings under construction as at 30 June 2026, with a spate of unit projects already completing in Sydney.

By the end of September, it was possible to see the impact on rental vacancy rates.

It seems that while the previous building cycle was heavily centralised and focussed on high-rise apartment towers, this cycle is characterised by a more dispersed range of medium- and higher-density development across the capital cities and various regions (Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, etc). 

Melbourne's rental vacancy rate rose to 1.9 per cent in September, and in Sydney the rental vacancy rate rose to 1.8 per cent.

Canberra had the equal-highest rental vacancy rate at 1.9 per cent, while rental markets remained very tight across the other five capital cities. 

Here is a 6-month moving average chart of the rental vacancy rates across the 8 capital cities:

This should presumably mean softer rental price inflation over the next 6 to 12 months.

That said, capital city median asking rents did still rise to a record high $932/week for houses, while unit rents were also close to a record high at $673/week, according to SQM Research data.

Nationally rents were still 7.6 per cent higher than a year earlier.  

You can read SQM's media release here. 

The medium-term outlook

A few sundry observations, including from last week's Building Activity figures.

While Brisbane currently has a very tight rental market, eventually there will come a surge of project completions right across south-east Queensland, which will soften the rental market.

Sydney and Melbourne already working through their respective supply pipelines, and rental markets will soon be tight again in the eastern suburbs, lower north shore, inner west, etc. 

The leading indicators show that new home sales have fallen every month since the Federal Budget, building approvals have fallen to a 7-month low, and developer insolvencies are tracking at all-time highs. 

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

Podcast: Stabilisation or second leg for downturn?

Podcast: Buyer standoff

Here's what Chris B and I discussed on the podcast this week:

"Pete examines how the downturn differs by city and price bracket, with more expensive homes under pressure while affordable parts of the market have held up better. 

Chris explains why a cheaper-looking apartment or a well-known suburb is not enough: building quality, strata costs, location and the individual property still matter. Their views on a possible Melbourne recovery and the outlook for Brisbane and Perth are scenarios, not certainties.

They also tackle a property-market puzzle. 

Some homes have sat unsold for months, yet new listings remain scarce. Does that create genuine bargaining power, or just a standoff between buyers and sellers? Pete and Chris discuss what might turn a slowdown into a buyer’s market, including motivated vendors, interest rates and the supply of desirable homes.

Two listener questions bring the conversation back to decisions families face now: how parents can help a daughter prepare for home ownership, and what an inner-west Sydney buyer should look for when prices soften but stock stays tight. Expect a practical discussion of earning power, money habits, negotiating room and why the market bottom is usually clearest only in hindsight."

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

No increase in rents...yet

Still high on supply

Dwelling commencements increased to around 52,000, seasonally adjusted, in the June 2026 quarter.

Completions continue to lag commencements, but did increase to 47,000, as a bunch of unit developments hit the market in Sydney.

The number of houses under construction has increased again to around, the strength over the past three years having been driven by Perth and Brisbane.

As for units and townhouses, there is a record number of units under construction across Greater Brisbane, Gold Coast, Redcliffe, Maroochydore, etc.

And there's still a fair amount of pipeline to be worked off in Sydney and Melbourne.

Thus, although the lead indicators have softened considerably over the past 4 months since the Budget - and we have a record number of developers going into insolvency (especially in Sydney) - it will be some time before we see any meaningful increase in rents. 

Overall, there were some 248,000 dwellings under construction as at June 2026, so it would be reasonable to expect some rental market softness into 2027 as this wave of supply hits the market.

---

3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

ausbiz: Housing market squeeze

ausbiz TV

I joined Andrew at ausbiz TV to discuss where the housing market is turning down most.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here.