Pete Wargent blogspot

PERSONAL/BUSINESS COACH | PROPERTY BUYER | ANALYST

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to PM Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Sydney Morning Herald.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Friday, 10 April 2026

Rentals remain extremely tight

Rentals remain tight

Cotality released its latest Monthly Chart Pack, which still had housing values up +2.1 per cent over the March quarter, and +9.9 per cent over the year. 



Source: Cotality

The flow of new listings was, surprisingly, lower than average for the time of year. 


Total listings were also -11.5 per cent lower than a year earlier, meaning that it's still often tough to find quality properties for sale. 


Rental markets remained extremely tight, with rental vacancy rates near all-time lows, and rents rising +5.7 per cent over the year to March.

This is before potential tax reform to be delivered in the May budget, which may target capital gains tax on investors. 


Source: Cotality

You can download the latest Chart Pack here.

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1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 4.6 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 16,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Wednesday, 8 April 2026

Ceasefire

Markets boost, oil falls

Markets got a huge confidence boost overnight on the announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran, though to be fair we have heard a similar sort of rhetoric before.

Australia's 3-year bond yield finished today around 11 basis points lower at 4.56 per cent, as Brent crude oil prices plummeted by $20 per barrel to $95, while the ASX 200 closed up by a hearty 2.55 per cent.

How long the initial markets euphoria lasts is less clear. 

Futures markets are still looking for a little less than two further interest rate hikes in Australia to get inflation back under control, while there's not yet any clarity around how and when oil supply begins to flow more freely again. 

Dwelling starts rise again

In other news, dwelling commencements got a strong uplift in the December 2025 quarter, rising by 8 per cent to around 53,600 seasonally adjusted.

This was the best quarter since 2021.


Still the pace of actual dwelling completions remained very slow at 43,500 in the quarter, seasonally adjusted.

Currently we're on track for around 875,000 dwelling completions over the five years from 1 July 2024, or less than ¾ of the government's 1.2 million homes Housing Accord target.


With housing project development remaining so slow, the number of homes under construction increased to around an elevated 236,000.


The standout sectors of the market have been detached houses in Perth, and a surge of new units under construction on the Gold Coast in south-east Queensland.


In the December 2025 quarter a decent chunk of the units approved in Sydney and New South Wales moved from the approved stage to breaking ground. 


The wrap

Overall, there are now a lot of dwellings under construction in Western Australia and parts of south-east Queensland, but the rate of actual dwelling completions remains well below par.

With the Iran War since interrupting progress in 2026, the laggardly pace of construction versus population appears set to continue for another year. 

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 4.6 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 16,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.y

Podcast: Fuel shock, inflation and higher rates are pushing Australia to the tipping point

Property podcast

Lots to discuss on the podcast with Chris this week!

In fact, it has been our most downloaded episode to date, reflecting the uncertainty in today's markets.

Here's what we discussed:

– Fuel shock intensifying: shortages emerging and diesel pushing above $3 per litre
– Fuel excise cut unlikely to offset rising costs as supply remains constrained
– Markets now pricing rates toward 4.6% – 4.85%, with further hikes expected before easing in 2027
– Build feasibility deteriorating rapidly
– Consumer confidence collapsing!
– Two-speed market forming: entry-level demand holding, premium segments weakening
– Housing shortfall widening
– Listener Q&A: portfolio strategy and capital allocation in uncertain conditions

You can tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 4.6 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 16,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Thursday, 2 April 2026

Unemployment rate heading to 5pc

Unemployment set to rise

Job vacancies were also rebounding a little up until February 2026, rising 2.7 per cent to 337,900 over the 3-month period. 


This means that up until February there were still fewer than 2 unemployed persons per job vacancy - historically speaking a very low ratio. 


Job vacancies rebounded to rise in 7 of the 8 states and territories over the quarter, with only South Australia recording a very modest decline.


Still, with the labour force swelling by 312,000 over the year, it looks like that was some potential upside for the unemployment rate.


Since the end of February consumer sentiment has collapsed to the lowest level in the history of surveys since 1972, so there is now an increasing likelihood that the unemployment rate will naturally rise towards 5 per cent according to many economic forecasts.

In other news the Australian PM announced further fuel price relief, but with apparently little progress having been made towards the resumption of oil supply markets have shifted into risk-off mode. 

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 4.6 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 16,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Wednesday, 1 April 2026

Dwelling approvals rebounded...before the war

Approvals rebound

The number of attached dwelling units approved, having dumped quite spectacularly in December and January, promptly doubled in February.

The monthly jump was largely due to approvals in Melbourne rising from 479 to 2,761.

Over the past year, though, Sydney and Melbourne have seen a muted supply of attached dwellings in the pipeline. 

The strongest trend has been across Greater Brisbane, and especially the Gold Coast.


House approvals have been subdued almost across the board, with the uptrend essentially all being driven by new housing being approved for undersupplied Perth. 


Piecing it together, there were around 19,000 dwellings approved in February, seasonally adjusted, and looking through the noise the monthly trend had increased to around 17,500 before the war. 


Over the year around approximately 196,000 dwellings were approved. 


A very solid month!

Unfortunately approvals will now fall away again as the year goes on due to rising interest rates, materials costs, and labour availability. 

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 4.6 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 16,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Early downturn for Melbourne & Sydney

Prices ease in Mel/Syd

Housing price rose 0.7 per cent in March 2026 according to Cotality, but with prices down a little in Sydney and Melbourne. 

Quarterly prices were up by 2.1 per cent, to be 9.9 per cent higher over the year.

Prices in Perth and Brisbane continued to power on.


Source: Cotality

The decline for the largest two capital was driven by detached houses in Sydney (-0.3 per cent) and Melbourne (-0.3 per cent), but with unit prices still in positive territory. 

The  price declines were driven by the most affluent areas, such as Melbourne's east and south-east, and for houses in Sydney's eastern suburbs and north shore.

However, properties in the lowest price quartile as still performing relatively well. 


Source: Cotality

Meanwhile, the rental market saw rental prices rise 2.1 per cent over the quarter, for the fastest increase since May 2024.

It look as though the rental market is re-accelerating still. 


Source: Cotality

Cotality noted that a sustained lift in housing supply looks unlikely with high materials and labour costs, while rising interest rates hamper feasibility further. 

You can see and download Cotality's full report here

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 4.6 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 16,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Tuesday, 31 March 2026

Fuel prices going ballistic

Pain at the pump

A slightly bemusing anecdote for you.

Popped into the servo this morning, and noted diesel prices had blazed to fresh all-time highs at an astonishing 329.9 cents per litre...


In the 15 minutes it took me to inhale a medium long black and a Krispy Kreme donut the diesel price was increased - not once - but twice to 335.9 cents per litre. 


We often get the creeping sense that prices are sneaking quietly higher - we see it in the $7 coffee or the $24.95 breakfast. 

But at the moment we can literally see prices rising before our eyes and in real time.

The government announced that fuel excise will be halved effective from tomorrow until the end of the financial year - a period of 3 months. 

This is expected to cut 26.3 cents per litre from the price of fuel, but at the current rate of progress that'll be absorbed pretty quickly (this wasn't a popular move with economists, but it may make some voters a bit happier). 

That would equate to a saving of about 13 bucks from a 50-litre tank of fuel, but of course prices could easily rise much further from here.

While not remotely pretending to be an expert in the space, from chatting to industry specialists it sounds like there is to be no 'quick fix' to the oil shortage challenge, given the damage incurred to infrastructure, the complexity of modern day supply chains, and the already depleted level of reserves in Australia.

Unsurprisingly ANZ's consumer sentiment index saw a huge spike in inflation expectations, and consumer sentiment nosedived to the lowest level the history of the survey...which dates back to 1972.

Australia's 3-year bond yield was a little lower today at 4.66 per cent, down from 4.83 per cent back on March 23, as investors shifted their focus from inflation to recession risks. 

Housing credit peak

Credit growth was 0.6 per cent in February 2026, according to the RBA's financial aggregates data, rising to 7.8 per cent over the year. 


Although investor credit growth rose to 9.2 per cent over the year, the monthly pace of increase peaked back in December, and has slowed in the face of rising mortgage rates.


Total housing credit growth was 7.1 per cent over the year to February, up from 5.7 per cent a year earlier. 


The housing credit impulse also peaked back in December, suggesting that we'll be seeing a housing market slowdown in Sydney and Melbourne, and less punchy price growth in Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide as 2026 progresses and as mortgage rates rise. 


Westpac now predicts that the cash rate target will peak at a cycle-high of 4.85 per cent before coming back down next year. 

In the meantime there have been many stories about cancelled housing projects in the face of steepling costs, suggesting that rental vacancy rates could hit all-time lows by 2027.

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In other news junior pay rates are to be abolished, meaning a pay rise of up to 42 per cent for more than 500,000 young workers, to be phased in over four years.

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 4.6 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 16,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Sunday, 29 March 2026

Podcast: Fuel prices surge as Australia’s property market enters a harder phase

2-Sense podcast

A huge week with rapidly-evolving fuel shortages around the country.

This week on the podcast Chris and I discussed:

  • Diesel has surged to roughly $3 per litre, with Australia especially exposed to fuel shocks; Pete notes this is already flowing through to transport, airfares, freight, food, and service pricing.
  • February inflation came in at 3.7% headline and 3.3% core, but both hosts stress that this was effectively pre-conflict data, with much bigger inflation impacts still to come through fuel and housing costs.
  • Consumer sentiment is at its weakest since 1973, services PMI dropped from 52.8 to 46.2, and market pricing has shifted toward a terminal cash rate of about 4.65% by December. Pete also notes bond yields spiked to 4.9% before easing back.
  • First-home buyers are still transacting despite the nerves, helped by the 5% deposit scheme and a strong desire to exit the rental market. Chris says his team had six first-home buyers purchase in a week, even as investors begin to look more fragile.
  • The market is splitting: premium property has cooled, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, while the lower end remains highly competitive. Pete says he is still seeing no evidence of declines at entry-level price points, even as high-end sentiment weakens.
  • Development feasibility is deteriorating fast. Pete cites producer-price inputs like copper pipes and tiles up 82% since 2019. Both hosts mention clients cancelling developments because they would now lose money by building.
  • Builders are under renewed strain and profit incentive worries: new home sales fell in March, insolvencies are rising
  • Listener Q&A: fixing part of a mortgage in a rising-rate environment, and whether a much larger inherited deposit should change ownership percentages inside a marriage.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):


You can also watch the YouTube version here:


---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 4.6 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 16,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.