And fifthly, for the time being at least, New South Wales has exempted first homebuyers from having to pay stamp duty up to the $1.5 million price point.
Pete Wargent Daily Blog
Real-time Aussie analysis: ECONOMY | REAL ESTATE | MARKETS
Pete Wargent blogspot
Tuesday, 21 March 2023
5 reasons Sydney unit prices will rise 25pc
And fifthly, for the time being at least, New South Wales has exempted first homebuyers from having to pay stamp duty up to the $1.5 million price point.
Home values steady
Monday, 20 March 2023
Wages growth cools for a 2nd month
Sunday, 19 March 2023
Supply issues steadily being resolved
Supply shocks solved
Charlie Bilello always provides sensational insights from the US on Twitter, and is well worth a follow.
From this weekend alone...freight costs are now - almost unbelievably - lower than they were at the start of the pandemic, having plummeted by an astonishing -87 per cent.
On the rampant demand side, things have been gradually cooling a bit too.
The average price of a used Tesla has fallen by US$21,000 since July last year, as charted by Charlie:
Gas prices are now tracking -20 per cent lower than a year ago.
In Australia we aren't quite there yet, but given the significant drop in oil prices of late it shouldn't be too long before unleaded prices are down by a similar amount from a year earlier (diesel prices have remained strangely high, on the other hand).
As for US interest rates? Well, they are now expected to fall now over the next two years, as markets price in rising concerns about major stress within the banking system.
Saturday, 18 March 2023
Too much, too fast
Breaking bad
In many respects, we’ve lived through an unprecedented few years.
The enormous fiscal stimulus deployed around the world - combined with the brutal supply shocks - led to a burst of inflation as the world reopened.
Perhaps that was the inevitable cost of the shutdowns.
Too much, too fast
With the benefit of hindsight, many are saying that central banks should have started lifting interest rates sooner.
Maybe that’s so…with hindsight.
But it’s also questionable whether that would’ve made any meaningful difference to, say, timber shortages, or spiraling freight costs.
The monetary policy response to the spike in inflation has been rapid and brutal.
But now things are demonstrably breaking, with banks coming under severe pressure all over the place.
Wild swings
The volatility in bond markets over recent days has been almost beyond belief, which is not typically a sign of good news.
The US 2-year Treasury yield finished another wild trade at around 3.84 per cent overnight - it was above 5 per cent only a matter of days ago.
Australia’s yield curve is also now pointing to lower interest rates over the next few years.
More volatility is to be expected ahead, but the narrative around the need for lifting interest rates has been broken.
Friday, 17 March 2023
Fixed rates to fall
Fixed rates to fall
A snippet from yesterday's population release.
Net overseas migration hit a record high of +106,200 for the September 2022 quarter, the largest 3-month increase in modern history.
There's so much competition between lenders for new business that it's imperative borrowers shop around for the best possible deal.