Listings fall in August

New listings slump

Listings declined in Sydney and Melbourne August as vendors quickly lost confidence in the strength of the property market after the Federal Budget.

Total listings had been piling up until July, and remain significantly higher over the year across most capital city property markets. 

Asking prices as lead indicator

It's always interesting to take a look at SQM's asking prices indices as a potential leading indicator for what's to come. 

Generally speaking, the sharper 10-to-15 per cent price declines in this cycle to date have come mostly from the top price quartile of the market (and, so far anyway, much less so from the middle and bottom price quartiles). 

Looking at asking prices, houses in Sydney have been the most impacted property type in this cycle, as the most interest rate sensitive sub-sector of the market - particularly in the expensive Eastern Suburbs, for example, where the median asking price for a house sits above $3 million these days. 

Although there are some excitable forecasts annualising recent price declines - leading to forecasts for total median price declines for Sydney of close to 20 per cent - asking prices seem to have levelled out over the past month (and even increased a little over the past week).

Historically speaking, the steepest price declines have tended to occur mid-downturn as initially stubborn vendors capitulate to meet the market and accept lower prices.  

Now, to be fair, another interest rate hike or two might easily kick off further round of price declines as sentiment and borrowing capacity take a renewed hit. 

Unit prices in Sydney have generally underperformed since the 2018 overbuild, and as such haven't declined too much this year at all.

In Melbourne, asking prices for houses are now slightly higher over the past month, having initially corrected by about -5 per cent earlier in the year.

Meanwhile unit prices appear to be pushing for new highs, perhaps underpinned by the huge and ongoing increase in residential construction costs, as well as relatively attractive prices and higher rental yields in some cases. 

Nationally, asking prices have also been flat for the past month for houses, and have increased marginally for units. 

Source: SQM Research

Overall, it seems that some homebuyers are now prepared to pay for the right property, but investors have stepped out of the established housing market almost entirely for the time being.

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GDP growth was 0.4pc in Q2

GDP per capita stalls

Real GDP growth was a little stronger than expected at 0.4 per cent for the June 2026 quarter.

Annual growth slowed from 2½ per cent to 2.1 per cent - which apparently is about the level of the economy's potential, given poor levels of productivity.

Stripping out population growth, real GDP growth, per capita, was flat in the June quarter.

Investment looks fairly solid, largely related to equipment for data centres.

Nominal GDP growth continued to climb to new highs, as price pressures in the economy have refused to die just yet.

This has partly been due to the climbing share of government spending as a share of GDP, a chunk of which has related to the NDIS. 

The household saving ratio held up in the June quarter - but one suspects this was partly an artefact of cancelled travel plans for the Middle East (something which impacted me personally - was supposed to go to Jeddah for the Saudi Arabia Grand Prix, but had to abort!). 

Similarly household consumption growth held up at 0.4 per cent, as Aussies spent more at home instead, including on electric vehicles as the cost of fuel soared during the Iranian conflict.

Households will come under considerably more pressure over the remainder of 2026, as the cumulative impact of three interest rate hikes begins to bite in the form of more mortgage interest payable.

Finally, Australia's terms of trade fell -1.6 per cent, with further declines possible from these elevated levels. 

The wrap

The Treasurer has attempted to position the recent data flows as 'good news' as headline inflation was lower over the year to July, and and as workers' share of national income rose to the highest share in a decade. 

Unfortunately for that narrative, markets now expect a further interest rate hike (or perhaps two), and this is unlikely to poll too well for the government given the tough economic environment facing many households.

James Foster ran through the figures in more detail here.

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And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

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By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

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Building approvals, solid in Bris & Perth

Approvals down

Building approvals fell -3.6 per cent to a seasonally adjusted 17,687 in July.

House approvals were solid in Perth and Brisbane, and pretty steady elsewhere.

The one bright spot for attached dwelling approvals remains south-east Queensland.

Sydney looks set for an acute housing shortage as this cycle progresses, especially given insolvencies in the development sector. 

Overall, this was a solid result, though whether all of the approvals turn into actual dwelling completions is a different story.

Over the past year, around 205,000 dwellings have been approved. 

Since the introduction of the Housing Accord, building approvals are running about 20 per cent below the government's implied target of 20,000 per month.

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In other news, Cotality reported housing prices as down by -0.9 per cent in August.

Source: Cotality

The largest declines have generally been seen in the higher price points, with houses in Sydney seeing a year-to-date decline of -7.7 per cent, and houses in Melbourne down -7.5 per cent.

Cotality reported that new listings are running -8.2 per cent below the 5-year average, with new listings in Sydney -14 per cent below average.

Rents continued to rise, up by 0.4 per cent over the month and by 5.7 per cent over the year to August (and 39 per cent over the past 5 years). 

You can read the full Cotality report here. 

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

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Is spring really a buyer’s market? Rents, listings and 40-year mortgages

False dawn?

Been staying the Cotswolds for a few days - very nice too, but good to be back on deck.

Here's what we discussed in the podcast this week:

"In this episode of Australian Property Podcast, Pete Wargent and Chris Bates unpack whether spring will bring genuine opportunity for buyers or just more noise in a fragile market. It is a practical check-in on prices, listings, rents and borrowing conditions heading into the busiest stretch of the year.

They look at why recent headlines about green shoots may be getting ahead of the data, what weak auction depth and softer sentiment are telling us, and why a true rebound may still depend on interest-rate relief rather than wishful thinking. The conversation also covers falling investor participation, why transaction volumes can drop harder than prices, and how the better properties in a suburb can hold up differently from the median numbers making the news.

Pete and Chris then dig into the policy side: negative gearing changes, rent pressure, slowing new-home sales, and the possibility that stretched supply gets even tighter if developers and investors keep stepping back. They also discuss sharper bank pricing, the early signs of a mortgage war, and why many borrowers should be reviewing their rate rather than waiting for the market to improve.

To finish, they answer listener questions on stamp duty, the real cost of trading property, and whether 40-year mortgages could become more common. That includes why longer loan terms may ease monthly repayments without fixing affordability, and how future schemes could change the way first home buyers enter the market."

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

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1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Inflation down to 3½pc in July, but...

Inflation above taregt

The ABS released the July inflation figures, which saw annual inflation fall from 3.8 per cent to 3½ per cent.

This was slightly above the median market forecast for a drop to 3.3 per cent, as end of year price resetting added to inflationary pressures. 

Trimmed mean inflation also didn't slow, remaining at 3.6 per cent, which will be of concern to those setting fiscal and monetary policy:

Source: ABS

The biggest contributor to inflation over the past year continues to be housing (5 per cent).

The cost of new dwellings continued to rise in July, though with major developers collapsing in real time presumably the inflation pressures will be easing forthwith as pricing power fades. 

In the monthly figures fuel prices rose 7½ per cent in July after three monthly falls, helping to juice the headline result.

Overall, this was a worse than expected result, and sees the odds of a rate hike in September rising to around a 1 in 3 possibility.

James Foster ran through the figures in more detail here:

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Major NSW developer collapses

Developer falls

After a series of scrutinising news articles in recent weeks, New South Wales development group Bathla has gone into administration with over $3 billion in debts, a significant portion of which was owed to private credit funds.

The development group was founded in 1997.

It remains to be seen if the Bathla Group collapse spills over into materially greater problems for the private credit sector.

Sales and confidence have dropped severely for most housing market developers after the Federal Budget, and this has come on the back of interest rate increases and steepling construction costs since the COVID lockdowns and border closures. 

According to the Bathla Group's website (now down) there are some 22,000 apartments in the group's development pipeline, and 3,500 houses. 

Reportedly 15,000 of the homes are in the under construction phase. 

Shane Oliver of AMP showed in the below graphic just how far behind the state's housing supply target New South Wales already is:

The Guardian reported that 1,522 construction firms collapsed in New South Wales over the course of the past financial year.

On these numbers it looks as though New South Wales will move into the next cycle with the most acute shortage of housing.

The development group's collapse was covered in more detail here and here (no paywall).

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Podcast: Should investors buy new?

Property Podcast

Here's what we discussed on the podcast this week:

"In this Australian Property Podcast episode, Pete Wargent and Chris Bates unpack a market that still looks soft on the surface but may be opening a sharper decision window for buyers, upgraders and long-term investors.

They explore how the post-Budget reset is changing behaviour on the ground, from investors stepping back and refinancers scrambling to lock in older valuations, to the early signs of more urgency ahead of the spring selling season.

Pete and Chris discuss why Sydney and Melbourne may now offer some of the best buying conditions seen in years, why quality owner-occupier stock could tighten again quickly, and why the real story is not just falling prices but shifting competition.

The conversation also digs into the second-order effects of policy change. They look at rental pressure, investor hotspots, rezoning and density in Sydney, and the practical ways households may rethink capital allocation if negative gearing and capital gains tax settings keep pushing people away from established property.

In the listener Q&A, they tackle whether selling down a large portfolio to buy a premium Sydney family home is smart capital recycling, and how the six-year CGT rule can change the tax treatment of an old and new home. If you want a practical read on where fear is building, where opportunity may be opening and what to watch next, this is a timely episode to queue up."

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

New home sales crunch begins

New home sales fall

New home sales had been on a pretty solid run up until April 2026, but fell for a third consecutive month in July, as the new tax setting begin to bite on sentiment.

Source: HIA

New home sales appear likely to drop sharply over the next couple of years as market sentiment has tanked.

Mirvac and Stockland also reported this week that new home enquiries have slumped over recent months, with fewer new homes expected to built ahead.

In the short term, there's quite a pipeline of homes to be completed, but over the medium term, it looks like the crunch is underway.

Reported the Housing Industry Association:

“Households continue to face the cumulative impact of three interest rate increases this year. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding recent housing policy changes has encouraged many prospective purchasers to delay, or cancel, major financial decisions.

“In the three months to July, house prices nationally declined by 2.0 per cent, the largest quarterly fall since 2022. Because the new and established home markets are linked, a decline in established prices will lead a decline in new home sales and a slowing in home building. 

“The adverse shock to established home prices, due to the Federal Budget, is likely to be one factor slowing sales of new homes."

You can read the HIA media release here. 

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.