No increase in rents...yet

Still high on supply

Dwelling commencements increased to around 52,000, seasonally adjusted, in the June 2026 quarter.

Completions continue to lag commencements, but did increase to 47,000, as a bunch of unit developments hit the market in Sydney.

The number of houses under construction has increased again to around, the strength over the past three years having been driven by Perth and Brisbane.

As for units and townhouses, there is a record number of units under construction across Greater Brisbane, Gold Coast, Redcliffe, Maroochydore, etc.

And there's still a fair amount of pipeline to be worked off in Sydney and Melbourne.

Thus, although the lead indicators have softened considerably over the past 4 months since the Budget - and we have a record number of developers going into insolvency (especially in Sydney) - it will be some time before we see any meaningful increase in rents. 

Overall, there were some 248,000 dwellings under construction as at June 2026, so it would be reasonable to expect some rental market softness into 2027 as this wave of supply hits the market.

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1. Download our property buying guide

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Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

ausbiz: Housing market squeeze

ausbiz TV

I joined Andrew at ausbiz TV to discuss where the housing market is turning down most.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

Podcast: Are higher rates breaking the property market?

Property Podcast

Here's what we discussed this week:

"Are higher interest rates finally testing the Australian property market—or creating a window for patient buyers?

In this episode of the Australian Property Podcast, Pete Wargent and Chris Bates discuss what rising mortgage costs and stubborn household expenses mean for buyers, borrowers and investors. Recorded ahead of an RBA decision, their conversation examines the prospect of another rate rise rather than assuming its outcome.

They look at why some households cannot refinance despite holding equity, how tighter borrowing capacity is changing the plans of first-home buyers and upgraders, and why a weaker market does not affect every suburb or price point equally. Pete and Chris also explore the pressures facing builders and developers, and the tension between falling prices today and constrained housing supply tomorrow.

Is property still worth investing in during a downturn? They weigh the appeal of well-located, established homes against higher holding costs, uncertain rates and the risk of buying new property on shaky assumptions.

In the listener Q&A, they consider how a property developer approaching retirement might plan a portfolio sell-down, the trade-offs of rentvesting in different markets, and whether a Melbourne homeowner should keep cash in an offset account, buy another home or investigate commercial property. Along the way, they stress the importance of debt, cash flow and property quality over easy predictions".

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

Job vacancies fall further; unemployment to rise

Job vacancies fall

Job vacancies fell another -3,000 over the 3 months to August, for a decline of -0.9 per cent, following a -2.2 per cent decline over the preceding quarter.

While the 3 most populous states appear to have stabilised, job vacancies fell in all most of the other states and territories. 

The number of unemployed persons per job vacancy has increased from the pandemic emergency lows of around 1(!) to 2.2.

This is the highest ratio since February 2021, and suggests that monetary policy has been mildly restrictive.

With the size of the labour force continuing to swell quite rapidly, it looks as though the unemployment rate may rise gradually towards 5 per cent, and then above.

Overall, it does look as though the unemployment rate will keep rising from here, with Western Australia and the Northern Territory seeing fewer roles created, and Canberra seeing some cutbacks in hiring too.

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

Top end leads housing declines

Prices falls for a 6th month

Cotality reported that housing prices declined -1.1 per cent nationally in September 2026, to be -5.2 per cent below the peak following six monthly declines. 

Source: Cotality

The declines have been driven by Sydney (-8.6 per cent) and Melbourne (-7½ per cent), and more broadly by houses in the most expensive price quartile in the market.

Indeed, given the 5 per cent deposit scheme - and the bottom end of the market being supported by soaring rents and construction costs - there has been no improvement at all in affordability for first homebuyers in the higher mortgage rate environment.

Dr Alex Joiner of IFM Investors charted the data below to demonstrate how price declines have been driven primarily by houses in the most expensive 25 per cent of the market.

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

Building approvals fall -6pc (more to come)

Building approvals to tank

Attached dwelling approvals dropped significantly by a seasonally adjusted -21.2 per cent in August, to 5,670.

South-east Queensland has been pumping the numbers for attached building approvals over the past couple of years, but reportedly pre-sales have fallen away sharply since the May Federal Budget.

House approvals have also been solid in Perth and Brisbane of late, taking total house approvals up to a 5-year high of around 10,890 for the private sector in the month of August.

Again, however, since the Federal Budget enquiry for new homes has tanked, and this will likely flow through to approvals data over the next year or two.

Overall, there were around 16,950 dwellings approved in August, seasonally adjusted, for a decline of -6.1 per cent. 

Approvals had been picking up, but now higher interest rates and build costs are bringing the cycle to an end. 

Over the year, around 207,000 dwellings were approved.

Nobody really talks about the 1.2 million new homes target any more - clearly we won't get anywhere close to that - especially given the recent surge in developer insolvencies.

Indeed, not all dwellings approved will actually be built.

Finally, the monthly figure for non-residential building work approved is extremely noisy and lumpy as data centres are approved, and it fell by -45 per cent in August...the trend has been higher, though, as more data centres are to be built in Sydney, Melbourne, and it appears Queensland. 

Overall, building approvals figures have been solid until now, but are softening in real time, and are widely expected to drop away over the next 12 months.

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

Inflation softer than feared

Inflation softer

Analysts had expected a bit of a shocker for the inflation figures today, and auto fuel prices did surge by almost 15 per cent in the month of August (following a 7½ per cent leap in July), taking headline inflation up to 4 per cent.

However, the underlying data was materially softer than feared, seeing the Aussie dollar drop from around 70 US cents to below 69.6 cents after the release, before stabilising. 

The 3-year government bond yield also declined to 4.9 per cent, having been as high as 5.1 per cent over this past week.

The trimmed mean inflation figure - which strips out some of the noise - was only 0.2 per cent in August 2026, which was softer than market expectations (though to be fair Westpac Economics pretty much nailed it). 

To two decimal places, trimmed mean inflation was 0.24 per cent in August.

Source: ABS

Markets moved quickly to price out a rate hike from November, now trading at around only a 1 in 4 possibility. 

Housing was still the main contributor to inflation over the year, with consumer prices rising 5.7 per cent (driven by new dwelling prices, up 5.4 per cent). 

New dwelling costs have now increased by 48 per cent since April 2021.

Overall, the Treasurer and the central bank would have to be pretty pleased with these numbers, having taken plenty of criticism of late.

A lot now seemingly rides on the uncertain outlook for oil prices, following two face-ripping months for the cost of fuel. 

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

RBA hikes to 15-year high

Rate hikes

The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked interest rates for a 16th time under the present government.

This takes interest rates to a 15-year high of 4.60 per cent, and mortgage affordability to its worst level since the 1980s.

One good piece of news for the government, is that the central bank did at least consider holding rates today, and to that extent the presser was regarded as somewhat dovish.

Inflation figures for the month of August are out tomorrow morning, although Michele Bullock did note that not too much weight will be ascribed to one month of (historic) data, which is probably fair given that interest rates have been lifted four times this year already.

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3 ways to find out more:

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 20,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here.