Pete Wargent blogspot


'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Sydney Morning Herald.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Friday, 18 September 2020

Weekend reads

Must see articles

Why have housing prices been supported?

Find out here at Property Update's weekend reads (or click on the image below):

You can also subscribe for free for the Yardney podcast here.

Cate Bakos webinar

Melbourne webinar with Cate Bakos

Due to overwhelming demand, it's easier to simply post a link to this.

We're very fortunate to access Cate's years of experience and insights for free here.

So much golden nuggets of advice, especially from 30 minutes in...

And here you go:

Have a great weekend all!

Unemployment stuns forecasters at 6.8pc

Stunning result

Surveyed economists had expected a huge drop in employment in August given that the Victorian economy was almost entirely shut down. 

And the median market forecast was for the unemployment rate nationally to rise to 7.7 per cent. 

Instead, there was a stunning result with unemployment dropping to just 6.8 per cent.

And employment leapt by 1 per cent or +111,000, split between full time (+36,200) and part time (74,800) roles. 

At 12,583,000 total employment remains well below the 13 million employed seen in February, but it is reigniting surprisingly well, with more than half of the total employment lost now recovered.  

The rebound was driven by a further +52,000 jobs added back in New South Wales, a state which was seen employment surge back by +188,000 across the past three months. 

Still, there's another 100,000 or so jobs to go for NSW to get back to where things were. 

The unemployment rate in Victoria increased by 0.4 percentage points to 7.1 per cent, with further increases likely in September and October, and possibly beyond.

Naturally the longer the shutdown persists, the more this will stymie the following recovery.  

Total hours worked, an extrapolated figure, remained 5 per cent lower year-on-year in August. 


More details from data king James Foster here.


Newly confirmed cases fell to just 28 in Victoria today, the lowest since the third week of June, as progress in  continues. 

Elsewhere results have been spectacularly good.

Australia is well positioned as it heads towards its warmer summer months, while in a few months Europe will be heading into the depths of its cold winter. 

Thursday, 17 September 2020

Sydney and Brisbane to tee off in 2021 (paywall)

Sydney/Brisbane home prices to jump

Strong COVID-19 results today, and a stunning result for unemployment, falling to just 6.8 per cent. 

Westpac is now forecasting a housing market surge for Sydney and Brisbane. 

Why homebuyers need to think like investors in 2021

Thinking strategically

Homebuyers will need to think strategically in 2021 - here's why (or click on the image below):

Stephen Moriarty on MMT, stock market investing, and more...

Rask Media does MMT

Well worth tuning in to learn a bit about what MMT is, and a whole lot more besides. 

Listen or watch at the Rask Podcast here (or click on the image below):

Melbourne webinar with Cate Bakos

Cate Bakos webinar

Amazing insights from Cate Bakos given her vast wealth of property and related knowledge, especially on where and what to buy, demographic shifts, and how the housing market in Victoria differs from the rest of Australia...and much more. 

If you missed the webinar live drop me an email with 'Melbourne webinar' in the title and I can send you over a recording.

Wednesday, 16 September 2020

Airport stonks

Auckland Airport

I haven't had many good individual company ideas this year - like a lot of people I mainly use ETFs these days instead, sometimes leveraged - but this is one I've been very happy with:

I do enjoy investing in a strong monopoly business, although Auckland Airport can periodically bump up against related complaints and accusations of squeezing out excess profits through charging greater and greater fees to consumers. 

This one is a 'Well 3' or long-term investment for me i.e. straight into the bottom draw, as no doubt the next year or two could involve some...well, turbulence. 

My thesis is simply that travel trends will be much more back-to-normal than they will be different, and probably much sooner than people presently think. 

Sydney Airport (ASX: SYD) has also looked far more attractive with a 4-handle this year than it did at $9 last year, and I’ve invested there too, although Sydney Airport arguably doesn't quite have the monopoly strength of Auckland International, while remaining a 'tollbooth' type of company. 

Please note that this is not personal advice: it's suitable for me, not necessarily for you, DYOR, etc. 

Grand closing

While on the subject of travel and reopening dates, there were 42 newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 today in Victoria, and very little else around the country, save for a few returned travellers in quarantine.

The 7-day average for newly confirmed cases fell to precisely 50, which is the lowest figure since June. 

There are 16 cases remaining in ICU in Australia, down by 10 from a week earlier. 

There are still 1,172 'active' cases in Australia, although this only includes known cases, so there may be a great many more. 

This still leaves the question of how the Grattan Institute et al think that eradication or "zero active cases" is an achievable goal, since it could apparently involve locking down almost the entire Victorian economy for months (with no actual guarantee of success). 

The Victorian Government presumably must know this, and so 'aggressive suppression' is officially the order of the day. 

To some degree the big end of town has been supported through this crisis, but small businesses in Victoria are now being creamed, or in many instances outright destroyed. 

Meanwhile in Sweden the virus has run its course and life is back to normal with even the weekly deaths figures barely registering now. 

In fact, total deaths in Sweden have been running well under the 10-year average for weeks now, but as new and important evidence comes to light few are prepared to update their views on what has become a highly emotive issue, as explored by the Washington Examiner here