Property rebalancing begins

Rebalancing markets

New property listings are already falling away compared to last year in Sydney (-14.1 per cent) and Melbourne (-8.1 per cent) as the property market has softened.

Now it is the turn of vendors in Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth to try their luck.

Source: Cotality

The rental market remains very tight, with rents still up by 5.9 per cent over the year to July, outpacing wages growth.

Source: Cotality

Cotality reported that rental yields are now starting to hit multi-year highs:

"National gross rental yields (3.72%) reached their highest level since April 2023, supported by rising rents and easing home values. This is up from the 2022 low of 3.2%".

Over the past 3 months the most expensive quartile of properties has been hit hard in Sydney (-5.2 per cent) and Melbourne (-4.6 per cent).

However the cheapest 25 per cent of properties has seen very little impact on prices.

Source: Cotality

You can check out the Chart Pack from Cotality here. 

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You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

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Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

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You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

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Average weekly earnings growth lowest since 2022 (ABS)

Earnings growth slows

Average weekly full-time earnings rose to $2,038 in May 2026, according to the ABS release today:

Source: ABS

However, the annual average earnings growth of 3.7 per cent was the lowest since 2022.

Moreover, the six-monthly movement is clearly in a significantly softening trend (slowing to 1.6 per cent), and particularly so for the private sector.

Source: ABS

This means that, after accounting for inflation, real earnings have been well down over the past few years.

Nominal full-time earnings are up by more than $300 since 2022, but in many cases household bills are up a lot more sharply than that.

The slowdown in earnings growth also suggests that the labour market is no longer as tight as it has been, as previously suggested by the ABS underutilisation data in the labour force survey.

In a similar vein, Seek reported job vacancies as being down -6 per cent from a year earlier.

Source: Macquarie Macro

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CBA reported that mortgage application volumes are down by around -15 per cent since the May Federal Budget, although they do appear to have stabilised lately at a lower level.

Source: ASX

Similarly, Nerida Conisbee at Ray White noted that the average number of attendees per open home fell sharply after the Budget, but these number also appear to have found some sort of a base in August.

Source: Nerida Conisbee, Ray White

Nerida previously noted that with the cost to build a new dwelling rising by more than 50 per cent since 2019, new dwelling costs will limit the downturn in housing prices. 

Realistically, though, investors won't become active in the established housing market until mortgage rates fall substantially, or rents rise sharply.

Anecdotally, agents preparing for the spring selling season expect to have a surge of ex-rental properties being listed for sale, in part because (depending upon the state) it can take up to 90 days to provide tenants with due notice.

In real time rents seem likely to jump by 20 per cent or more in the inner-suburban capital cities, particularly for family housing and in sought-after school zones. 

In one seems like a re-run of 1985 to 1987, today the AFR reported a $6.8 billion stampede of funds ploughing into Aussie stock exchange ETFs last month as investors step away from the property market.

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1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

RBA on hold at 4.35pc

Rates on hold

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate target on hold today as expected at 4.35 per cent.

The Statement on Monetary Policy included a few interesting details, including for the housing market.

Housing prices have fallen -1.6 per cent from their peak according to the RBA, driven by the higher price points in Sydney and Melbourne so far, though these figures may be somewhat lagged. 

The aggregate figures appear to show that the median borrower has around a year's worth of prepayment buffers - essentially funds in offset and redraw accounts - which will likely help with the smoothing of consumption for some time, even in the higher mortgage rate environment.

Housing credit growth to investors has slowed since the Budget as expected, but so too has lending to homebuyers, according to APRA data. 

These figures are also likely to be lagged, and will show further falls as the LRBA lending ban kicks into gear in full, in turn reducing new housing sales and supply.

Stamp duty take has already notably dropped off a cliff in New South Wales in particular, with both New South Wales and Queensland staring down the barrel of rating agency cuts as revenues fall away.

Core inflation is expected to ease back to the target by June 2027, and indeed inflation forecasts have been revised down a little from earlier forecasts. 

However, there are still some cost pressures afoot, including notably for new housing costs, with price building cost inflation in the sector rising back up to 1.8 per cent in the June 2026 quarter, and 5.3 per cent over the year.

This comes off the back of already-large price increases in new dwelling costs over the past half-decade.

There may yet be some further cost pressures for trades and materials ahead given the huge boom in approvals for data centres in Sydney and Melbourne. 

A further interest rate hike in September is priced at about a 1 in 4 chance. 

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In other news the NAB Survey showed business confidence falling back a little, from already very low levels, to -6 points.  

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1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Podcast: Housing chill hits the economy, listings surge, & why upgraders may have the edge

Property Podcast

Here's what Chris and I discussed on the podcast this week:

"In this episode of the Australian Property Podcast, Pete Wargent and Chris Bates unpack a property market that is cooling, but not in a simple, one-speed way. Home values fell again in July, Sydney and Melbourne stayed at the front of the downturn, and listings jumped sharply, especially across key parts of Sydney.

The bigger question is who actually benefits from this shift. Pete and Chris explain why first-home buyers may not be getting the relief many expected, why the lower end of the market has held up better than the top end, and why upgraders could be looking at one of the more interesting windows of this cycle. They also dig into rising rents, worsening rental affordability, and how changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax are starting to reshape investor behaviour.

The conversation then widens to the broader economy, from slower lending and weaker housing activity to pressure on construction, consumer spending and state budgets. They also tackle listener questions on CGT transition rules, valuations, development sites and the growing need for proper tax advice in a more complex market.

If you want a grounded read on where fear is building, where leverage may be shifting and what to watch next, this episode is a timely one."

Click here to listen (or on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

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1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Listings rise sharply (SQM Research)

Listings rise sharply

SQM released its media update on new and total property listings for the month of July here.

Listings increased by a significant 12.4 per cent in July as stock is selling slower, to be 22.8 per cent higher than a year earlier.

Only Hobart didn't seen an increase in listings over the past year., while the largest increase was seen in Melbourne (+42.8 per cent), as land taxes bite. 

Brisbane also saw a large monthly increase in total properties for sale (+18 per cent):

The impact from the Budget on the top price quartile of the market has already been significant. 

In July capital city asking prices for houses fell -1½ per cent, while unit prices were broadly flat (-0.2 per cent). 

SQM Research highlighted Sydney's West, South West, and Hills District as areas where listings have surged to pr towards record highs (granted the west and south-west of the city have expanded hugely over the 16 years of available data). 

Source: SQM Research

Listings in Sydney's Eastern Suburbs, Lower North Shore, and Inner West have not recorded any increases just yet.

Asking prices for houses in Sydney are down by -4.3 per cent over the past quarter, and units and apartments at the higher price points have also seen some significant price drops. 

Source: SQM Research

In the rental market, asking rents continued to rise, for houses (+7.6 per cent over the year) and especially for units (+2.3 per cent over the quarter and +7.9 per cent over the year). 

Source: SQM Research

SQM is recording an ongoing fall in the number of properties listed for rent, although July is typically a weaker month for rental market demand. 

In Brisbane rental listings look set to break to all-time lows, while Hobart, Darwin, and Perth are all incredibly tight rental markets. 

---

1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

ausbiz TV: Housing downturn impacting more than prices

ausbiz TV

I joined Juliette Saly at ausbiz TV to discuss how the premium sector of the housing market has accounted for most of the downturn to date.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

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1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Housing downturn led by upper quartile

Home values decline

Cotality released its latest home values index, with prices falling by -0.7 per cent in the month.

The downturn has now spread from the largest and most expensive cities into Brisbane and Adelaide, as well as Canberra:

Source: Cotality

Cotality noted that over the past three months prices in the upper quartile of the market had fallen by -3.2 per cent, while prices in the lowest quartile actually increased by 0.3 per cent.

Trent Saunders from CommBank Research put together this very useful chart to show the difference (and also the trend):

In this context, it's perhaps no surprise that the greatest year to date declines have been for houses in Sydney (-5.9 per cent) and houses in Melbourne (-5.9 per cent). 

Advertised rents rose another 0.4 per cent on the back of "extremely low" rental vacancy rates, to be 5.9 per cent higher over the year, stretching rental affordability to its worst level on record.

Cotality noted that rents were up $40/week over the pasty year and $200/week over the past five years. 

You can read the full Cotality report here.

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Also worth a read, Charter Keck Cramer's State of the Market report:

"The BTS apartment market faces ongoing and increasing headwinds. 

This is most easily observed in the alarmingly low levels of current and forecast BTS apartment supply across Australia’s capital cities."

For example in Sydney, the future supply of apartments is expected to run at only half of the annual underlying demand:

Source: Charter Keck Cramer

You can read the full report here.

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1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 19k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Podcast: Is now a smart time to buy property? Budget shock, rents and the flight to quality

Property Podcast

Here is what we discussed on the podcast this week:

"In this Australian Property Podcast episode, Pete Wargent and Chris Bates unpack one of the biggest questions in property right now: is this actually a good time to buy, or are buyers still stepping into a falling market too early?

They explore why so many sellers, buyers and agents seem frozen at once, why quality assets are behaving differently from the headline market data, and how fear around interest rates, inflation and the Federal Budget is changing behaviour across Sydney, Melbourne and beyond. 

Pete and Chris also explain why weak confidence today could become a major supply problem tomorrow, especially if developers, builders and investors keep stepping back.

The conversation goes beyond prices. 

They discuss tightening rental markets, why first-home buyers may still need to act even in a softer market, and why the best opportunities often appear when sentiment feels worst. 

Their core message is clear: focus on quality, think long term, and do not confuse scary headlines with the value of a genuinely strong asset.

They also answer listener questions on the six-year CGT rule, how to think about an investment property versus a future Melbourne home, and what buyers should watch if they are trying to move while the market still looks foggy."

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

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1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 18k followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here. 

My book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.