Unemployment to rise to 5.6pc imminently

Unemployment to surge

Team Westpac are not too optimistic about the Aussie economy reaching full employment, n fact expecting unemployment to surge precisely the other way to 5.6 per cent within just a few months from now. 

Source: Westpac

Also in biz news this morning:

-unprecedented store closures to hit landlords and other retailers (SMH)

-no pay rises in 2020 as economic confidence 'in a crater' (SMH)

-collapse in consumer and business confidence locks Australia into slow growth (Australian)

Also in the SMH:

-nothing more the RBA can do (SMH)

Yay.

Have a great week!

Why your risk tolerance isn't what you think

Risk tolerance

This is why it's not what you think (or click on the image below):

Separating the signal from the noise

Signal versus noise

Here's how to separate the two (or click on the image below):

Sources of info (brain food)

Brain food

This is why you to pick your information sources carefully (or click on the image below):

Criticism of our book

Negative feedback

Some feedback on our approach - see here (or click the image below):

Stocks and cycles in 2020

Market cycles

Listen to the master of the market cycle, Howard Marks, speaking at Bloomie this week here (or click on the image below):

Uncannily we put out a few pieces on the theme of ‘thinking in bets’ only recently.

From 6 minutes in, notes Marks:

-buying stocks regardless of price is a recipe for disaster

-index funds promoting and people saying 'no price too high' is the ultimate sign of a bubble

-it's not what you buy it's what you pay for it - price always matters

Net long-term arrivals 297,000

Immigration trends

Permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia totalled 844,960 over the year to November, up 2 per cent from a year earlier, but just a notch lower over the past two months. 

Net of departures, total arrivals were around 297,000, implying population growth of around 380,000 or 1½ per cent after accounting for natural population growth (births minus deaths). 

Asian century

Tourism was still romping along until November, on the back of the Asian century.

And short-term international education arrivals hit yet another record high at 619,100 over the year to November. 

Unfortunately, the raging bushfires will blast a $1 billion hole in the tourism figures, blowing yet another hole into the ailing Aussie economy.

The growth in short-term arrivals over the year to November was driven by Victoria (up 6 per cent year-on-year) and Tasmania (up 8 per cent).  

There's been a fairly sharp drop in short-term arrivals from Hong Kong as the unrest and demonstrations continued. 

There's less tourism from Hong Kong, but plenty of capital is winding its way back to Australia.

Going with the flow

Ebbs and flows

Housing credit flows aligning closely with housing price growth.

Source: Commonwealth Bank