Pete Wargent blogspot

PERSONAL/BUSINESS COACH | PROPERTY BUYER | ANALYST

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Sydney Morning Herald.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Thursday, 17 July 2025

Unemployment rate rises to 4.32pc (highest since 2021)

Unemployment spikes

It was a second soft month of net hiring for the Aussie economy, with full-time employment decreasing by a seasonally adjusted -38,200, and total employment effectively flat for a second consecutive month. 

The figures this year have been pretty volatile, to be fair, so we probably wouldn't want to read too much into a single month of data. 


And since April was such a large month for employment, the 3-month average employment gain remains pretty solid at +29k. 


However, as the size of labour force continues to grow at a fair clip, the unemployment rate jumped from a seasonally adjusted 4.11 per cent to 4.32 per cent in June. 

The unemployment rate has thus continued to rise from a cycle low of around 3½ per cent in 2022 to now hit the highest level since 2021.


Meanwhile, youth unemployment (15-24 year olds) leapt from 9.5 per cent to 10.4 per cent, which was also the highest level since 2021.

The underutilisation rate rose from 10 per cent to 10.3 per cent, as jobs market slack increased.


Hours worked over the month fell by -0.9 per cent.

The wrap: no panicking yet...

Overall, this was a significantly softer than expected labour force survey release, both for employment and particularly for the unemployment rate, which suddenly jumped to the highest level in the 43 months since the equivalent unemployment rate seen in late 2021.

These figures will be slightly concerning to the Reserve Bank, with the Board having opted to hold interest rates in a split decision last month.

But still there will be keen interest in the inflation figures for the June quarter before interest rates are eased any further. 

James Foster ran through all the key figures in more detail here

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By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

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Housing starts begin to pick up pace (completions still slow)

Housing starts rise

There was a solid 11.7 per cent uplift in the number of private sector new dwelling starts in the March 2025 quarter, to a seasonally adjusted total of 47,645.

It's still a long way below the implied target of around 60,000, but represents a marked improvement, both for detached homes and for attached dwellings. 

In particular, New South Wales and Queensland are miles behind target, as is also the case in South Australia and Tassie. 


On the downside, it's taking far longer than it should to actually get homes built, at an average of over 10 months for a detached house (way up from around 6½ months only a few years ago).

The number of dwelling completions thus in turn slowed to just 43,517, seasonally adjusted, which was a rather disappointing result, with completions cumulatively only about ¾ of what's deemed to be necessary across the financial year to date.


Looking ahead it seems likely that conditions will improve for homebuilders as the cost of capital comes down, and materials costs level out. 

Where the cranes are...

There were fewer dwellings approved but not yet commenced, especially in Sydney as more apartment projects finally got underway.


Overall, slightly more units were under construction in Sydney, Melbourne, and Adelaide over the March quarter...but this was not yet the case for Brisbane or Perth. 

The total estimated number of dwellings under construction was 219,883 (the all-time high watermark was an estimated 244,180 in 2022). 


The wrap

In summary, it's still taking longer than it should to build dwellings, but the number of housing starts has at least moved beyond the cycle nadir in 2025, and should continue to trend higher from here. 

Unit supply has been painfully slow in Sydney and Melbourne over recent years, but looks set to improve forthwith.

Brisbane is still lagging somewhat, however, perhaps due to exceptionally high construction costs in the Queensland capital as a raft of infrastructure projects has created high demand for resources and labour. 

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In other news, year-on-year inflation looks to have picked up a notch in the US, Canada, Eurozone, and especially the UK in June 2025, where fuel and meat prices took the inflation rate all the way back up to 3.6 per cent (versus 3.4 per cent expected by the market forecasters).


---

   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 15,200 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today

Tuesday, 15 July 2025

Cautious RBA sets the tone for property in 2025

ausbiz TV

I joined Andrew at ausbiz TV to talk through the latest property news, including from the Westpac consumer sentiment survey, which was released earlier today.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):


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In other news, it was the strongest May on record for net permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia (it's normally a fairly quiet time of year, but net arrivals were +33,230).

Over the year to May, net permanent and long-term arrivals have picked up some steam of late to +447,620. 

This is down from the all-time high of +498,270 in February 2024, but still historically a very strong number.


Despite this, rental vacancy rates lifted slightly from 1.2 per cent to 1.3 per cent in June, according to SQM Research. 


SQM's interpretation is that many of the capital cities remain under chronic rental pressures, despite the seasonal lift.

The acid test will be what happens when we move into the warmer summer months. 

You can read SQM's media release here.

---

   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 15,200 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today

Monday, 14 July 2025

Mortgage lodgement volumes - and sizes - hit record

Fixed rates on the way down

Westpac's economics team pulled together an interesting graphic on mortgage rates, showing how better deals are becoming available for borrowers, gradually.

In particular, fixed rates are coming down.

Only around 2 per cent of borrowers are taking fixed rate products at the moment, but this does suggest that variable rates will most likely be on the way down too over the next couple of years. 


Australia's most significant mortgage aggregator AFG reported a record $27 billion of mortgage lodgements over the June quarter, suggesting that borrowers are positioning themselves for  a strong year ahead. 

The strength was broad-based across all of the main states by volume. 


Source: AFG

The average mortgage size increased slightly to a new high of $678,333 in the June quarter.


The recent rise in average mortgage sizes has been driven by Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia, far more so than by Melbourne or Sydney. 


There has been a steady recovery in the share of interest-only lending, up to 21 per cent of loans.

The market share of loans going to first homebuyers has remained steady at 11 to 12 per cent over the past few years, but this seems likely to increase in 2026 as stimulus measures come into force. 

Investors accounted for 34 per cent of lodgement volumes, the market share having crept higher to hit the highest level since 2017. 

---

   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 15,200 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today

Sunday, 13 July 2025

2-Sense podcast: Should you even pay off your mortgage? Can you borrow for property endlessly using trusts?

2-Sense podcast

We covered a lot of ground on the podcast this week, did Chris and I!

This week on the show: 

1 – How much first homebuyer stimulus is enough?

2 – Half of Canberra’s bankruptcy filings last year were from strata managers chasing fees, inquiry hears

3 – Rob Moore – should you pay off your mortgage?

Listener Q&A

Tune in here (or click on the image below):


You can also watch the YouTube version here:


---

   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 15,200 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today

Friday, 11 July 2025

Webinar: The BRRR strategy for wealth acceleration

Webinar

In tonight's webinar, Reece and I discussed how to accelerate your wealth creation strategy through property investment, including through adding value.

The recording will be available for 24 hours - tune in here from around 3 minutes in (or watch below):


---

   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 15,200 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today

Wednesday, 9 July 2025

Cautious RBA holds until August

Split decision

The Reserve Bank's July decision was split by 6 votes to 3 to remain on hold.

This was clearly a bit of a surprise for markets, with the Aussie dollar jumping from 65 US cents to 65½ cents, and the 3-year government bond yield trading at 3.45 per cent today, up from around 3.3 per cent in the lead-up to the policy decision announcement. 

The June quarter inflation figures may still show some residual inflationary pressures, but at this stage markets are expecting an interest cut next month. 

Looking further ahead, the curve is a little shallower, with market pricing for the terminal rate at around 3 per cent for this cycle, effectively implying three further cuts by Q1 2026, but perhaps no more than that.


Source: ASX

The upturn in the NAB Survey seems largely to have been driven by the improving outlook for construction and housing development.

I'm not sure what the implications for asset markets are, if any. 

The Aussie stock market is broadly trading flat over the week, and the recent trends in auction markets are pointing to a gradual upswing in housing prices. 

It's worth remembering that the government's First Homebuyer Guarantee Scheme for first homebuyers with a 5 per cent deposit is set for launch on 1 January 2026, with no Lenders Mortgage Insurance and the government guaranteeing up to 15 per cent of the loan balance. 

---

   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 15,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today

Tuesday, 8 July 2025

NAB Survey turns a corner; RBA on hold

Biz survey ticks higher

The NAB Survey showed some tentative signs of improvement in business confidence and business conditions for the month of June 2025, arresting a multi-year downtrend.

Labour cost growth slowed a little, which there was a small pick up in purchase costs and final product prices.

The ongoing downtrend in retail prices is good news for the battle with inflation, though.


Source: NAB

Cautious RBA holds

In other news, the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised financial markets and most market economists by holding the cash rate target at 3.85 per cent today.

It had been assumed that since 50 basis points cut was considered last month the implication was for back-to-back cuts...but it did not prove to be so. 

RBA Governor Bullock said that today's decision was more about the timing than the direction of interest rates.

This this allows the Board to assess the June quarter inflation figures before making any further moves. 

After rate cuts in February and May, markets are still looking for a further cut in interest rates next month.

The Board voted 6-3 for today's decision to remain on hold. 

James Foster ran through the key details in his daily explainer here.

---

   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 15,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today