Pete Wargent blogspot


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Wednesday, 11 December 2019

This is why you should fit your own mask first

Self-care first

Here's why (or click on the image below):

Births up; fertility down

Fertility rates decline

Total registered births increased by +1.94 per cent in 2018, to a record high 315,147, according to the ABS. 

79 per cent were born to the usual residents of New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland. 

Source: ABS

Despite the record high number of births, fertility rates continue to fall to just 1.74 per woman, well down from the recent peak of 2.02 per woman in 2008.

Source: ABS

Labor's Kristina Keneally jumped on the figures as a government failing with the baby boom having 'gone bust'.

But, of course, the fall was inevitable since teenage fertility rates have dropped so dramatically since 1998 (it’s also unlikely there’ll be an increase in the fertility rates of the rapidly growing number of Chinese-born parents).

On average, Aussies are also having babies later these days.

The median age for mothers was 31.4 years, and for fathers it was 33.5 years, both of which were record highs. 

Source: ABS

Relatively few babies are now born to parents born in Europe, with Asian-born parents now dominating the statistics. 

The statistics by mother's country of birth have long implied that families of Indian origin have a greater propensity for having multiple children than those from China. 

Both the fertility rate and the total number of births were considerably higher for mothers born in India (1.77 and 16,161) as compared to mothers born in China (1.21 and 9,871). 

This is how to learn a new language

Language barriers

Here's how to do it (or click the image below):

Tuesday, 10 December 2019

Patchy recovery for housing in Q3

Patchy recovery

From peak to trough, Aussie capital city housing market prices fell by 8 per cent between 2017 and 2019, with some variation between the cities.

Although it was obvious anyway in real time, today’s official release at least puts to bed the conspiracy theories about the rebound being a bogus media construct, forged in cahoots with CoreLogic and Domain.

The solid rebound in residential property prices was, as expected, led by Sydney (+3.6 per cent) and Melbourne (+3.6 per cent) in the third quarter of 2019. 

Brisbane also saw a steady gain of +0.7 per cent, but there were declines in all of the other capital cities except for Hobart. 

The rebound was seen across both houses and units, but weighted average capital city prices remained -3.7 per cent lower than a year earlier by the end of September 2019.

The latest figures show that residential prices exactly doubled over the 16 years to Q3 2019, with capital city detached house prices (+107 per cent) outpacing attached unit prices (+79 per cent).

Sydney is the largest component of the weighted index, and prices remained lower year-on-year in September for both houses (-4.5 per cent) and attached dwelling units (-4.8 per cent), despite the rebound.

Unit prices tend to fare better in mature capital cities, and in Sydney's case there was only a modest difference between detached house prices (+91 per cent) and attached unit prices (+78 per cent) over the past 16 years of available data.

Units tend to achieve higher yields than houses, so net-net...a very similar outcome.

The preliminary estimate for the number of dwellings was about 10.4 million as at Q3 2019.

The total dwelling stock value increased by +2.8 per cent from $6.7 trillion to $6.9 trillion, driven by New South and Victoria.

This will see Australian household wealth per capita surging to record highs in 2020, with both Aussie and global stock market indices experiencing rollicking gains in 2019. 

Penultimately, Australia’s mean dwelling price increased from $645,200 to $660,800 in Q3, also driven by New South Wales and Victoria. 

Finally, the ratio of dwelling stock to GDP was back up to about 3.6x, having previously peaked at 3.8x. 

Of course, headline numbers only ever mean so much...

The wrap

Overall, there was the expected solid rebound in prices in Sydney and Melbourne prices in Q3.

That said, even within those cities the rebound was patchy (while prices were actually still falling in the other capital cities ex-Brisbane and Hobart).

Since the end of September, CoreLogic has reported further solid price gains in October through December, so a similar result can be expected in Q4. 

How to thrive in a capitalist economy

Free market economies

Here's how to thrive (or click on the image below):

Monday, 9 December 2019

No slowdown in visa issuance

Education boom

Despite election talk of reducing the permanent intake into Australia, any prospective slowdown has been offset by an increase in temporary visa issuance. 

The big drivers have been seen in student visas, bridging visas, and other visitors.

In particular, student visas have exploded into Sydney and Melbourne.

The total number of temporary visas hit a record high 2.3 million in Q3 2019.

Temporary visas on issue have fairly consistently increased by about 100,000 per annum over the past six years, from 1.7 million in 2013 to a record high of 2.3 million as at September 2019. 

This means that population growth, when including temporary and permanent immigration, and the natural population increase (births minus deaths), is running at close to 400,000 per annum.

I recently discussed here that while population growth can drive housing prices, it isn't a precondition for rising prices. 

Sunday, 8 December 2019

Saturday, 7 December 2019

Weekend reads and podcast

Weekend reads

The must-read articles of the week summarised for you here at Property Update (or click on the image below).

This weekend a look at stock listings, housing prices, and interest rates:

By the way, you can subscribe for the free podcast here.