Pete Wargent blogspot


'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Sydney Morning Herald.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Monday 31 August 2020

Stimulus leads the way to housing recovery

Housing recovery

I discuss, alongside Shane Oliver of AMP Capital, at Livewire markets here (or click on the image below):

You can find out more about Buyers Buyers here

Lending rates decline

Cheaper cost of money

Many of the US housing markets are flying on the back of record low mortgage rates.

New home sales have soared to their highest level since 2006.

It's not so yet in Australia, with Melbourne in lockdown and uncertainty abounding, although mortgage rates for new loans have continued to decline to record lows.

Melbourne has been somewhat cut adrift as the lockdown continues, with home values now down -4.9 per cent from their early April peak. 

Prices in Sydney have leveled off lately, and there have been some modest increase in Adelaide, Brisbane, and notably Perth where sentiment in rising. 

Still a wide range of outcomes remains possible, given the uncertain spread of COVID-19, but price falls in the capital cities are now largely limited to Melbourne, and some inner-city unit markets.

Buffett buys Japan

Big in Japan

Interesting move from the birthday boy Warren Buffett, swinging hard into Japanese stocks.

Japan's stock market was arguably the biggest bubble in history, accounting for nearly half the global market cap at one stage.

Even the US only hit half of Japan's lofty peaks as measured by CAPE during the tech exuberance. 

Japan took 30 years to reach fair value, after land values fell the country sank into deflation with its ageing and declining population.

The US market now looks very expensive again, while the UK looks relatively cheap by comparison.

Australia lies in the middle, with quite a bit (as ever) resting on your views on the outlook for banks. 

Buffett has bought shares in Japan's five largest trading companies, including Mitsubishi and Sumitomo, perhaps in part a foreign currency play.

This equates to an investment of about $6.25 billion per CNBC, and Buffett may increase holdings up to 9.9 per cent stakes, to be held for the long term. 

Podcast Episode #21: Giving up the day dob - how much is enough?

Podcast new episode

Tune in to the latest episode here (or click on the image below):

You can order a copy of our new book here, and download a free chapter here.

You can check out our full podcast series at Apple podcasts, or you can tune in at SoundcloudStitcher, or Spotify.

Don't forget to leave us a friendly review, as it helps us to get the word out :-)

Sunday 30 August 2020

Podcast episode #21 preview: Giving up the day job - how much is enough?

Podcast preview

A sneak preview of Episode 21 of the Low Rates High Returns podcast, where we discuss the big question: how much is enough?

You can order a copy of our new book here, and download a free chapter here.

You can check out our full podcast series at Apple podcasts, or you can tune in at SoundcloudStitcher, or Spotify.

Don't forget to leave us a friendly review, as it helps us to get the word out :-)

Weekend reads

Must see articles

Check out the must see articles of the week at Property Update, where this week there's a look at the latest rental market trends:

See here for more (or click on the image below):

You can also check out the free Yardney podcast here - now ranking high in business podcasts globally.

Saturday 29 August 2020

How to find 'silent sales'

Off-market or silent sales

See here for more (or click on the image below):

Friday 28 August 2020

Still expensive out there

Equity valuations

Still plenty of appetite for risk out there - via the Scutt:

Thursday 27 August 2020

How expert guidance can help you to buy your dream home for less

Saving time, cost, and stress

See here for more (or click on the image below):

See here for more about Buyers Buyers. 

Margin Call

Margin Call podcast

It was great to be on the Margin Call podcast, a show with some outstanding guests.

See here (or click on the image below):

Wednesday 26 August 2020

Apartment construction continues to slide

WA resurgent

Apartment construction slowed to the lowest level in half a decade in Q2 2020. 

The slowdown was largely driven by Melbourne and its lockdown, while the other major states have seen things stabilise in this sector. 

Mining construction is now on the rise again in Western Australia, while major engineering projects in New South Wales also provided a timely boost.

Thanks to engineering, the preliminary figures for construction hardly declined in Q2, down by just -0.7 per cent and holding up at more than $50 billion.

The quarterly peak was $66 billion in 2017.

Brighter times ahead for Western Australia on the back of the strength in iron ore and gold. 

As always, there's more detailed analysis from data supremo James Foster here

Tuesday 25 August 2020

Australia's stimulus on steroids

Income flows boom

Via Dave Scutt on the Twitter, and the CBA:

It will be interesting to see how or whether the government can wean folks off this.

Buying property right now

Livewire markets

Article on the LiveWire with insights from Shane Oliver of AMP, Doron Peleg of Riskwise Property Researcg, and myself.

See here to read (or click on the image below):

6 things to consider before you buy a unit

Before you buy a unit...

See here for more (or click on the image below):

Check out our WeLearn and WeIntelligence tools at the respective links - all for free.

Monday 24 August 2020

Property Diaries with Cate Bakos

Property Diaries podcast

I was delighted to join the wondrous Cate Bakos on the Property Diaries podcast.

Click here to tune in (or click on the image below):

Coastal and hinterland markets thrive

ausbiz TV

I had a discussion with Nadine Blayney and David Scutt on the property markets around the country that are doing well, and those that are struggling with a lack of demand. 

See here at ausbiz TV (or click on the image below):

Podcast Episode #20: YES! You can time the market

Market time

In Episode #20 of the Low Rates High Returns podcast, we discuss market timing.

See here for more (or click on the image below):

You can order a copy of our new book here, and download a free chapter here.

You can check out our full podcast series at Apple podcasts, or you can tune in at SoundcloudStitcher, or Spotify.

Don't forget to leave us a friendly review, as it helps us to get the word out :-)

Sunday 23 August 2020

Sydney recovers, Melbourne smothered

Sydney rebounds

There were very few auctions in locked down Melbourne this weekend, and more than half of those didn't sell under the hammer.

Sydney, on the other hand, is faring better by the week, with the weekend's preliminary auction clearance rate now rising to sit above 70 per cent.

Source: Dr. Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market

Over the full week Sydney had a total of 662 scheduled auctions, a surprisingly solid volume, with a preliminary clearance rate of 72 per cent, according to CoreLogic's more comprehensive weekly figures.

Sydney's dwelling prices stopped falling over the past week, while Brisbane recorded +0.2 per cent growth.

Melbourne's housing prices continued to decline by a further -0.4 per cent, to be -4.7 per cent from their April highs, according to CoreLogic.

Somehow Victoria is still, even now, recording more than 200 new cases per day of COVID-19, despite the Stage 4 lockdown measures. 

Fortunately there have been very few cases elsewhere, save for a few returned overseas travellers in quarantine, and the positive news is that nationally the trend is still down.

Hopefully there will be some better news on the virus this week. 

Unfortunately Melbourne appears likely to remain locked down for a long while to come, regardless of the COVID-19 results, which will send hundreds of small businesses to the wall. 

CapEx actuals and plans this week...

Friday 21 August 2020

Weekend reads and property podcast

Must see articles

The must see articles of the week, including a look at all of your Melbourne questions on the lockdown and what it means for property.

Click here for more (or on the image below):

You can also subscribe for the hugely popular and free Yardney podcast here

Handbags and gladrags

Travel spend shifts to retail boom

Preliminary retail figures showed retail turnover ballooning to +12.2 per cent year-on-year. 

This is record high retail spend, with household goods, white goods, luxury handbags and more all booming.

Source: ABS

Retail turnover fell by -2 per cent in Victoria as the lockdown measures began to bite, but elsewhere things are turning up for retail (while luxury car sales have also been bullish). 

White goods, furniture, and more

Household goods retail turnover is now up +30 per cent year-on-year!

What gives?

Partly it's the government stimulus measures, and partly this might relate to early withdrawals from superannuation.

But likely a huge driver has been the lack of ability for Aussies to spend on international travel and holidays (not to mention restaurants, theatres, and cinemas). 

This is keeping Aussie dollars at home, which is funneling more and more spend into retail, and some of the retail stocks are absolutely flying. 

Christmas could be an absolute ripsnorter this year!

More detail as ever from James Foster on the Twitter

This is how to help your kids onto the housing ladder, frugally

Bank of Mum and Dad

Unlocked article - see here for more (or click on the image below) - always remember to run through all of your options with a mortgage broker and financial advisor:

Covid deaths decline in UK

Deaths decline

Some brighter news for the weekend:

Source: Worldometers

After a dreadful run through Q2, the 7-day moving average for UK deaths is now down to stunningly low levels, in the single digits. 

Melbourne's new cases declined to 179 today, the lowest in a month.

It was also good to see another day of zero cases for Queensland.

New South Wales recorded just one new case from 32,580 tests.

Update: only 1 case was found outside Victoria from nearly 71,000 tests today.