Pete Wargent blogspot
Friday 30 June 2023
Credit growth hitting the skids
Jobs vacancies on the way back down
Wednesday 28 June 2023
Aussie inflation plunges
Tuesday 27 June 2023
This is how housing policy should change, with Peter Tulip
Housing policy podcast
This week Peter Tulip, Chief Economist of the CIS and former Reserve Bank researcher, joins me on the podcast to discuss how housing policy should change.
Listen out for some forthright views on the current macroprudential restrictions...
Tune in here (or click on the image below):
You can also watch the video on YouTube here:
Big Picture podcast
Construction insolvencies take off alarmingly
Monday 26 June 2023
"Supply" pressures easing
Supply chain pressures at record low
Amidst all the panic about persistent inflation, it's reassuring to stop and consider how supply chain pressures are now easing (and how!).
Let's take a look via a few illustrative graphics.
Firstly, oil prices - a key input into production - are down from around US$110 to under US$70.
This hasn't yet been fully reflected in fuel prices, which have still been averaging close to $1.90 per litre for unleaded through the fuel cycle.
Meat prices achieved by farmers have crashed lower since a year ago, although this also hasn't yet been reflected in supermarket prices for consumers.
The brilliant analyst Charlie Bilello fired out a few illuminating charts on Twitter this weekend.
Global container freight rates have fallen by a remarkable -88 per cent from their highs, and are now at their lowest level since 2019, he highlighted.
Demand set to slump
With most Aussies mortgages being on variable rate terms or short-term fixed rate mortgages, demand is about to get absolutely slammed by a rapid 400 basis point increase in interest rates.
Logically the next phase of the cycle is heavy price discounting around the country's shops and supermarkets as demand hits a brick wall.
We've never seen anything quite like this twin dynamic before, and it wouldn't be a huge surprise to me if quarterly inflation turned negative later next year.
Sunday 25 June 2023
2 Sense: Population & jobs boom & the most millionaires migrate to Australia
2-Sense podcast
This week on the Australian Property Podcast, Chris Bates and I discuss the ongoing population and jobs boom, and the millionaire migration to Australia...and what it all means.
Tune in here (or click on the image below):
You can also watch on YouTube here:
Saturday 24 June 2023
Taxing Times
Friday 23 June 2023
Domain forecasts new highs in these cities
Wednesday 21 June 2023
This is how to value property like a pro
Australian Property Podcast
I joined Amy Lunardi to discuss how to value properties like a pro.
Tune in here (or click on the image below):
You can watch the video version here:
Tuesday 20 June 2023
Disinflation ahead, folks...
Residential prices playing whack-a-mole
ausbiz TV: property trends
I joined Danielle Ecuyer on ausbiz TV to discuss record population growth here (or click on the image below):
Sunday 18 June 2023
2-Sense: Interest rates deep dive; war-gaming a 5pc cash rate
More Sydney buyers than sellers
Saturday 17 June 2023
Uncertain times
Click here to read it (or click on the image below):