Pete Wargent blogspot
Saturday 27 February 2021
Travel ban pushes global property cycle
Friday 26 February 2021
Credit impulse turns north
Lending lifts
Housing credit growth lifted to +3.6 per cent in January, the strongest level since the last federal election in May 2019.
The little credit growth there is has been driven by construction loans, first homebuyers, and upgraders, so there's no benefit in calling for changes to lending standards - markets will begin to sort themselves out in any case as listings begin to increase.
The latest wages growth figures will show nominal wages growth at all-time lows, so it's hard to see core inflation sustainably getting back to target for a year or three yet.
Thursday 25 February 2021
Brisbane guns for Olympics bid!
Wednesday 24 February 2021
These are the 6 key financing questions property investors must answer
Majors' loan deferrals down 91pc
Tips for taking action
Tuesday 23 February 2021
Westpac updates housing forecasts
Monday 22 February 2021
Podcast Episode #34: MMT
Buffett Indicator moons
Sunday 21 February 2021
Podcast Episode #34: Preview (MMT!)
Friday 19 February 2021
The outlook for 2021 and beyond
Shane Oliver showed this week that interest serviceability for households is at the lowest level in about 35 years.
The business case for Airbnb
Thursday 18 February 2021
Full-time employment booms back
Employment surge continues
Full-time employed surged +59,000 in January, and total employed jumped to 12.94 million.
93 per cent of the jobs lost have now been recovered, and job ads suggest that a record high of 13 million could happen as soon as the first quarter of this year.
The unemployment rate dropped sharply again to 6.35 per cent.
Hours worked dropped sharply in January as more Aussies took a well-deserved holiday, but the recovery continues apace!
Here's the detailed analysis with James Foster...right here.
UK house prices rise 8.5pc in 2020 (Brisbane next off the rank)
UK price rise
The stamp duty holiday and ongoing low mortgage rates saw UK house prices rise +8.5 per cent in 2020.
The average house price moved up to ₤252,000.
Source: ONS
This was the strongest increase in six years.
Of course mortgage rates were already ultra-cheap in the UK and could barely go any lower than they already were.
It's a totally different story in Australia, where mortgage rates have plunged at a time when most households are unable to travel overseas, and as such are awash with cash.
This is what leads Dr. Cameron Murray and others to forecast Brisbane housing prices to rise by up to 45 per cent through this cycle.
As I've noted here before, assuming mortgage rates stay low for some time prices could rise by a third without troubling mortgage interest serviceability ratios (though paying back the principle might be a different proposition for some new borrowers).
With so little interest-only borrowing in Australia now debt to income ratios have been declining lately, setting us up for the next property bull.
Buffett takes $4bn stake in Chevron, $9bn in Verizon
Wednesday 17 February 2021
Last man standing
Doing a Bradbury
19 years ago today in Salt Lake City...let us all take a short moment to saviour the greatest Australian Olympic achievement of all time:
The version without music is probably been better, I'll never forget the crowd's furious booing.
Never give up!
Tuesday 16 February 2021
Melbourne exodus hit rentals
Melbourne rental market
As previously discussed Sydney rental vacancies have now peaked as international arrivals are now set to increase to 3,000 per week into New South Wales, as confirmed by SQM Research's latest figures.
The Sydney vacancy rate dropped from 3.6 per cent to 3.2 per cent in January.
In Melbourne, on the other hand, international arrivals have been halted, and another lockdown risks a further CBD exodus.
Melbourne vacancies were still very high at 4.4 per cent, compared to just 2.1 per cent a year ago.
Elsewhere vacancy rates are tight, especially in Adelaide, which tightened to just 0.7 per cent, and Perth at only 0.8 per cent.
Brisbane's vacancy rate continues to trend lower, down to 1.7 per cent from 2.4 per cent a year ago.