Pete Wargent blogspot

PERSONAL/BUSINESS COACH | PROPERTY BUYER | ANALYST

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Sydney Morning Herald.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Wednesday 31 January 2024

Property market outlook for 2024

Property in 2024

I joined the champion team at Open Agent to discuss the property market outlook for 2024 here (or click on the image below):


Retail sales tank

There's been plenty of guff written about the 'strength' in retail sales over recent months.

The reality is now gradually becoming apparent.

The November Black Friday surge in turnover was revised down in the latest figures.

Turnover then also fell -2.7 per cent in December in seasonally adjusted terms, taking monthly retail turnover all the way back down to 2022 levels at $35.2 billion (despite the record population growth since that time).  

Reported the ABS:


Source: ABS

Of course, the real kicker is that these figures are measured in current prices, and the quarterly figures will show that retail volumes have been dropping for well over a year.

Now it's all about retail discounting to get customers through the door meaning lower prices ahead.

The UK is already experiencing this, with growth in the shop price inflation dropping to the lowest level in two years, up only 2.9 per cent over the past year. 

James Foster ran through the latest detailed figures for Australia here.

The Aussie household saving ratio has already fallen from 24 per cent at the highs to 1 per cent, and since monetary policy works with a lag, we'll soon be seeing the intense impact of higher mortgage rates on the economy. 

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The inflation figures for the December quarter are due out on Wednesday morning, and are expected to record quarterly increase of around +0.8 per cent.

This would take annual inflation down to a 2-year low of around +4.3 per cent.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here

    5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Monday 29 January 2024

Renovations back at near-record levels

Alterations & additions

Major renovations work ballooned from early 2020 from $200 million to $600 million per month on the back of the government's massive HomeBuilder stimulus package.

I guess, if nothing else, this shows just how powerful targeted fiscal stimulus can be!

And Australia has a lot of fiscal headroom should it ever be needed again.

Things seemed to be easing in 2023 as mortgage rates increased, and as many of the pandemic period renovation projects finished, yet by November we were back to near-record monthly highs for the financing of renovations.


What gives?

Firstly, it's worth noting at least a third of the increase in the value of renovations has been due to rising costs, rather than only volumes.

And secondly, certainly the chronic shortage of housing in south-east Queensland has led to the construction of more granny flats. 

Thirdly, low levels of housing stock for sale combined with high transaction costs/stamp duty rates have led many aspirational homeowners to stay put and renovate, rather than trade up.

And fourth, perhaps some of the more creative mortgage brokers are even using 'renovations' as an excuse to cash out for refinancing. 

Noise, or new uptrend?

But is this latest data merely noise or a blip, or is it the resumption of another genuine boom in renovations work?

Smoothing out the recent data suggests that Sydney and New South Wales homeowners have driven the recent rebound, with renovation financing running at around double their pre-pandemic levels. 

But the largest percentage uplifts in the value of renovations lending since the pre-pandemic days have been seen in Queensland and Western Australia, more than tripling respectively.

It's boom-time in the resources states, driven in part by very rapid population growth.

A word of warning for would-be renovators: you should probably plan for budget overruns, heavy pricing for materials and trades, and potentially council approval delays to boot. 

Also, consider using a buyer's agent if you're looking to buy in the current exceptionally tight market conditions.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here

    5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Sunday 28 January 2024

Another construction collapse... (inflation figures to come)

Builder collapses

Yet another builder collapses, with the deposits paid by homebuyers reportedly left uninsured.



Lending policies are too tight for investors to get back into the market in large numbers.

Meanwhile developers are left holding the bag on their unprofitable fixed-price projects, so insolvencies across the sector have continued to soar. 

Although some people do like to buy new property to be the first user, it's hard to imagine there being much confidence in doing so in the current environment.

With 1.2 million homes targeted to be built over the next five years, it's rational to expect the defects issues to become an even greater problem than we've ever seen previously. 

Things are not boding well for housing supply targets, with dwelling starts already mired at decade lows. 

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Some big news this week with the release of the inflation figures for the December quarter.


Inflation is expected to be around 0.8 per cent for the December quarter, with over half of the core inflation to be contributed by housing costs (rents, the price of new dwellings, and surging electricity bills).

Higher interest rates have historically been correlated with higher rental yields (and vice-versa), and much of the energy story has been driven by offshore developments, so monetary policy won't have too much direct impact here. 

The remaining inflation is likely to come from alcohol and tobacco sin taxes, and food prices, which remain high. 

Still, the expected decline to 4.3 per cent over the 2023 calendar year would be a 2-year low, with lower energy costs and a slowing economy set to push inflation below 3 per cent before the end of 2024. 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here

    5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Shaky foundations? Housing supply targets drift ever further

2-Sense

We're back for 2024, and today Batesy and I take a look at the property market outlook for 2024.

We take an updated look at the housing supply challenge, including the latest high-profile new apartment defects in Sydney, the controversial Stage 3 tax cuts, and the outlook for the mortgage market given the shifts in market pricing. 

Tune in here (or click on the image below):


You can also watch the video version here:


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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here

    5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Saturday 27 January 2024

A Lucky Country (run by...)

Debt and deficits

I have a week in Dubai coming up - a country with no personal income tax - and later in the year, I'm visiting Singapore - a country with no net debt.

It's always tempting to look into sneaking residency in such places (and it's not even that hard for entrepreneurs in Dubai, through setting up a locally registered company. or by buying a qualifying property. 

On the flip side, I sometimes wonder about the medium-term future for European countries, like my native (British) homeland, which is saddled with a net debt ratio surpassing 100 per cent of its annual GDP for the first time in more than 60 years. 

Europe is facing various other demographic and migration challenges, as well as a general lack of dynamism and dependency on governments...and an anti-growth Coalition, if you will! 

There's no need to delve too much into that here, but it so often strikes me how bloody lucky Australia is in terms of where it's located in the world, its ability to continue attracting skilled migrants from all around the globe, and investment from Asia and elsewhere.

And then there's the sheer depth of Australia's minerals and other resources: iron ore, thermal and metallurgical coal, natural gas, copper and copper ore, crude oil, aluminium and alumina, gold and silver...plus an abundance of all of the rural commodities, for good measure. 

The "beaches, weather, and coffee" and the icing on the cake.

There's been a lot of debate about who should and shouldn't get tax cuts this week, but as the budget shoots back towards surplus it's reassuring to be based in AAA-rated country where net debt is projected to ease back gradually to below 20 per cent of GDP over the next decade.

Australia took on a bit of debt to see things through the world's longest lockdowns, but there remains so much fiscal headroom if it's ever needed.


Advance Australia

There's been a lot of gnashing of teeth over the past 15 years about persistently high private debt levels, and Australia has been something of a victim of its own success in terms of its world-dominating median household wealth per adult

Australia also isn't "exactly like Ireland or Spain in 2006", with their painfully thinly-capitalised banks and roaring explosion in speculative credit, construction, and development. 

Try setting up as a developer in Australia and getting finance for a project...you've got Buckley's chance, the lending settings are so tight.

Apart from Australia having its own currency and setting its own policy rates, today's global banks are enormously well capitalised by comparison to the pre-global financial crisis days.

Today the top 6 most highly capitalised banks in the world include ANZ (1st), Commonwealth Bank (2nd), Westpac (4th), and the National Australia Bank (6th).


Compare this to 2008, to a time when most banks around the developed world had Tier 1 capital ratios in the range of 6 to 8 per cent, and often lower. 

Another dubious comparison is sometimes made between Australia and Japan, where the projected endless population decline has led to derelict ghost towns and villages across the country (although condominium prices in Tokyo could hardly be said to be cheap, soaring dramatically to a record high in 2023). 


If anything, Australia has the opposite problem: effectively too many people want to live here, immigration is tracking at record high levels, and the population is growing far more quickly than we can build for (not to mention the diabolical levels of traffic and the never-ending infrastructure deficit). 


For sure there are ongoing challenges, then.

And we'll most likely get a cyclical downturn in a few years, most likely (pencil in an overbuild of new apartments in 2027, is my bet, especially of build-to-rent and other high-rise towers in Melbourne).

But, still, there are many goods reasons why more than 27 million of us choose to call Australia home these days. 

Happy Australia Day, to those who celebrate.

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Core PCE inflation fell to 2.9 per cent in the US, the lowest since March 2021.


The Fed Funds rate is now 2.3 per cent higher than the core PCE inflation figure, as charted by Charlie Bilello above. 

It's the most restrictive policy rate since September 2007. 

The monthly rate of core inflation at 0.17 per cent was again very low, taking the 6-month annualised trend to below 2 per cent (and the 3-month annualised rate to 1.5 per cent).

In other words, interest rate cuts are on the way.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here

    5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Wednesday 24 January 2024

This is what the tax cuts mean for you

Tax cuts tweaked

There's been a lot of spirited debate about the government going back on its often-repeated election promise to deliver the previously planned tax cuts.

Perhaps like most things in life, the proposed changes not all good or bad.

On the plus side, the moves won't add to inflation so much, with less significant tax cuts for the highest income earners. 

Bond yields ticked down just a little, as markets continue to expect interest rates declining in the second half of the 2024 calendar year. 

Better still, there will be more significant tax cuts for those earning up to $150,000.

Arguably these have been the households most impacted by high inflation, particularly from food and energy prices, childcare expenses, and so on.

On the downside, despite the forthcoming tax cuts, Australia is still taxing income far too punitively.

The 45 per cent marginal rate (plus the 2 per cent Medicare Levy) will kick in from $190,000, up from $180,000 previously. 

Had tax brackets been indexed to inflation since 2008, the top rate threshold would have increased from $180,000 to $260,000 by 2024, instead to where we have landed from July at $190,000 (versus what the Coalition had legislated $200,000). 

Higher-income earners will still get a tax cut of $4,529, but that's only around half of what was previously planned. 


Impacts of changes

Overall, the tax cuts are likely to be slight less inflationary than previously feared.

From a tax planning perspective, higher income earners will doubtless be looking to make some adjustments to their affairs to save tax on their income...notably from including from investing in negatively geared property.

For two-income households there will be an increase in borrowing capacity from July onwards of up to around $100,000 as interest rate cuts begin in the second half of 2024, which will be a tailwind for property prices up to the $2 million price level. 

Overall, depending on the city and region, it seems that prices in the $2m to 4m price brackets are generally softer, but up to $2 million prices are rising. 

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Australia's population clock screamed through 27 million today. 


The population clock continues to rise at a near-record pace of 1,728 per day (or 631,000 per annum).

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here

    5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Tuesday 23 January 2024

Price & cost growth falls sharply

Retail and prices slow

Here's some terrific news which will please the central bankers, with the NAB Survey price and cost growth dropping sharply in December right across the board. 


Overall, the NAB Business Survey details were consistent with wages growth falling back to around 2 per cent ahead. 

Some price discounting is normal around Black Friday and Xmas, but there's also been a sharp fall in retail price growth, all the way down to 0.6 per cent in December.


Source: NAB Survey

Capacity utilisation is easing...and in a separate report from Jobs & Skills Australia, firms reported that recruitment difficulty has become progressively easier since 2022, and is now heading back to around pre-pandemic levels. 

In July 2022, three quarter of employers had some level of recruitment difficulty, but now the share has fallen to one-half (well, 51 per cent, down from 56 per cent in November). 


Source: Jobs & Skills Australia

Wages growth also to slow

In other news, SEEK's wage growth index also slowed to 4½ per cent over the year to December 2023. 

The annual growth in advertised salaries was materially pumped up by the Fair Work wages boost, but growth in recent months has tapered away to the extent that it won't be long before the annual rate of growth has dropped back to under 3½ per cent. 


With applications per job advertisement climbing rapidly, wages growth is surely set to slow in 2024.

Tax cuts backflip?

Finally, it seems that the boost from the Stage 3 tax cuts may not be quite as large as previously expected, though of course we'll have to wait for the final confirmation of this. 

It's not a good look for the ALP to go back on another earlier election promise, and any continuation this sort of thing may result in a minority government in the not-too-distant future...



Australia's top marginal rate of tax has kicked in at $180,000 for a long time.

Indeed, had marginal tax brackets been indexed to inflation since 2008 the top bracket wouldn't kick in until $260,000.

On a related note, I have a week in Dubai coming up...where there's no personal income tax. Sigh.

Overall, though, this was all further good news for lower inflation ahead, perhaps as already reflected in the marked shift in market pricing for interest rates since only three months ago.


Source: CBA

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The Australian Property Podcast will be back on the airwaves this weekend, with the latest 2-Sense segment due out early on Sunday morning.

We'll be discussing the outlook for 2024, new apartment defects and the housing supply conundrum, the impact of Stage 3 tax cuts...and more! 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.5 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here

    5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Monday 22 January 2024

Asking rents off & running again

Up rents

Asking rents are off and running again in 2024.

Asking rents for houses nationally are up more than +10 per cent over the past year, and have accelerated over the past quarter, rising by +3.8 per cent. 

There tends to be a bit of a seasonal element to this, although the pandemic messed with a few of those patterns since early 2020. 

Unit rents are also up more than +10 per cent over the past year.


This time around, the surge is being driven by the capital cities: notably Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Adelaide...and also Brisbane, where asking rents for units have ballooned by more than +15 per cent over the past year. 


I've seen enough cycles now to know that prices for units in Brisbane will surge spectacularly over 2024, just based on how open homes have kicked off in 2024. 

I guess that's partly an affordability thing - with no interest rate cuts likely until later in 2024 - as well as the desire to avoid the rental market participant right now.

BIS Oxford Economics forecasts unit prices to rise by +23 per cent in Sydney over the next 3 years, outperforming houses (+16 per cent). 

---

US stocks powered back to a record high as markets salivate about interest rate cuts this year, with Australia quite likely to follow suit soon. 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.5 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,500 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here

    5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.