Pete Wargent blogspot
Friday 30 September 2022
QLD scraps land tax plans
Thursday 29 September 2022
Australia's inflation 'problem' eases
Inflation easing
3 charts from Gareth Aird of CBA, demonstrating how Australia's inflation 'problem' is not getting worse.
Interestingly, Westpac has downgraded its inflation forecast for next quarter all the way down to 0.7 per cent, partly due to energy rebates in September (although the trimmed mean reading is still expected to be 1.5 per cent).
CBA is still expecting 1.6 per cent headline inflation, but even that result would be lower than the preceding two quarters.
Of course, we still haven't seen the full impact of the 225 basis points of interest rate hikes delivered to date, so there will be further declines ahead too.
Overall, Aird's point appears to be that there has been a lot of monetary tightening delivered very quickly already, the impacts of which have yet to flow through, so it's time to throttle back to 25 basis points next month and take stock of the situation.
Inflation to ease over time
In short, supply shocks delivered a nasty spike in inflation, but in real time we're through the worst of it now.
Fuel price inflation soared alarmingly to 43 per cent over the year to June, but over time annual inflation from fuel prices will naturally now ease its way back to zero (and below).
New dwelling purchase inflation peaked at a punishing 22 per cent in July, but annual inflation in this sector is now also on its way back down to zero as the building boom goes into reverse gear, and as materials become more readily available.
Fruit and vegetable prices spiked in recent months following the destructive floods in some parts of eastern Australia, with annual inflation peaking at 19 per cent in July...yet now we have an abundance of supply and prices have dropped right back across all manner of produce.
Going forward the main ongoing inflation pressures are likely to be seen in utilities and rents - with the government floundering on both of these fronts - but overall Australia doesn't have a major inflation or wages spiral problem.
Indeed, as immigration hits a record high next year, we'll be back to moaning about low wages growth again soon enough.
Job vacancies (and inflation) easing from highs
Wednesday 28 September 2022
Retail turnover up 0.6pc
Tuesday 27 September 2022
Michael Murray: Glorious Byron Bay and the Northern Rivers
Property Pod
This week, I was joined by Michael Murray from Byron Property Search, to discuss Byron and the Northern Rivers, how it has changed, why it has become so popular, and the outlook for the years ahead.
We also discussed the recent flooding, and future development implications.
Tune in here (or click on the image below):
You can also tune in at Apple podcasts, Spotify, and elsewhere.
And you can also tune in at Youtube here:
Monday 26 September 2022
State of the market Webinar
Thursday 22 September 2022
Credit Suisse Wealth Report: bumper 2021
Wednesday 21 September 2022
Population growth surges back +124k in Q1
No wages spiral here...
Tuesday 20 September 2022
Antonia Mercorella: This is why QLD needs to repeal its new land tax
QLD land tax
This week I interviewed the CEO of the Real Estate Institute of Queensland to discuss the prospective land tax in the state, how it has been modelled, and how it might be enforced.
Tune in here (or click on the image below):
You can also tune in at Apple podcasts, Spotify, and all the rest.
And, you can listen at YouTube here: