Bidding tactics to help you win at auction

Auction tactics

Cate and I discussed auction bidding tactics over at InvestSmart.

Check out our top 7 tips here (or click on the image below):

You can our buy our book here (or at any major retail outlet for books):

Don't forget to send us a selfie when you've bought it. 

Enjoy!

Buy Right Approach, Part 2: Building a powerhouse portfolio

Buy Right book

I joined the podcasting king Owen Rask in part 2 of this interview to discuss the Buy Right Approach to Property Investing.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch on YouTube here:

You can our buy our book here (or at any major retail outlet for books):

Don't forget to send us a selfie when you've bought it. 

Enjoy!

Navigating our Property Markets | Big Picture Podcast with Pete Wargent

Big Picture podcast

I joined Michael Yardney on the Big Picture Podcast to talk about all the big ticket items impacting the housing market.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

Office vacancy rates trend higher...

Office vacancies rise in large cities

We've been toying with the idea of buying an office space, but like many others in the market, we've been more than a bit cautious about what direction things are going in next.

The COVID-19 lockdowns dramatically accelerated the pre-existing trend towards more working from home, in Australia and elsewhere in the world. 

And while many employers are requiring their staff to be back in the office for 3 or 4 days per week, it's quite evident that overall the demand for office space is considerably lower than before 2020 (office attendance is reportedly about ¾ of what it was). 

In the US and Canada there have been numerous examples of hair-raising declines in office valuations, leading to concerns for some bank exposures.

To date, Australia has seen city offices trading at discounts of around 20 per cent from unlisted valuations, but nothing like as extreme outcomes, although the past six months has generally pointed towards an ongoing deterioration. 

CBA released a neat chart of PCA office vacancy rates by capital city, which shows that office vacancy rates are still trending quite sharply higher in Sydney, Melbourne, and Adelaide.

Brisbane has very high population growth, and office vacancy rates have declined from 15 per cent to 12 per cent.

Nationally, office vacancy rates at around 15 per cent are the highest since the early 1990s recession, which suggests falling rents and valuations will continue.

Eventually the market will likely stabilise in a high population growth country like Australia, but it may take some years of lower supply for all that space to be taken up, especially for B-grade stock and lower.

The wrap

Overall, while industrial commercial property continues to perform strongly, the fundamentals for office investments remain weak.

Demand for leases is relatively low, and higher interest rates for longer are continuing to push office valuations lower.

Bank loan exposures to office real estate are relatively low in Australia, though there have been some signs of non-performing loans and stress emerging in REITs and leveraged owners of commercial real estate.

There is also some risk that stresses from overseas spill over to Australia, even though domestic exposures and lending policies are quite conservative. 

Dexus and Lend Lease announced plans for two gigantic 300-metre office towers in Sydney's CBD over the past week, but with office vacancy rates still trending higher it's hard to envisage them being built this decade. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,300 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release and forthcoming release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

2-Sense: Where are all these jobs coming from?

2-Sense

With over 50,000 audio downloads last month, the Australian Property Podcast is growing in reach fast.

This week, Batesy and I discussed where all the new jobs are coming from, the peak in immigration, a slowdown in construction costs inflation, and much more.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch on YouTube here:

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,300 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release and forthcoming release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Unemployment rate trends steadily higher

Jobs power on

Almost every other jobs market indicator points to falling job ads, a surge in the number of applicants per position, and easing wages...but the official ABS figures continue to hold up well. 

Employment increased by a seasonally adjusted +50,200 in June, to a fresh high of 14.4 million.

The increase was driven by full-time jobs this month, although these figures do bounce around a fair bit and, zooming out, 70 per cent of employment gains over the past year have actually been part-time in nature. 

The number of unemployed persons increased by a seasonally adjusted +10,000 taking the unemployment rate modestly higher to 4.1 per cent. 

The trend for the unemployment rate has been steadily higher over the past two years from 3½ per cent, but despite some worrying signs, the wheels certainly haven't fallen off yet.

Indeed, with more people leaving the country than entering in this part of the year, the labour marker remains relatively tight for the time being, with measures of underemployment and underutilisation tightening a touch.

The 3-month average employment increase at +42,000 has just been enough to keep the unemployment rate down at just 4.1 per cent.

Overall, the labour market continues to hold up well, powered on by government and non-market roles in particular. 

All eyes turn to the June inflation figures due out at the end of the month - quarterly inflation figures of around 1 per cent or lower probably keep interest rates on hold for the remainder of the year, but anything higher than that could trigger a hike. 

James Foster ran through the employment figures in more detail here. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,300 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release and forthcoming release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Buy Right Podcast, Episode 12 - Navigating the Future

Buy Right podcast

This week on Episode 12 of the podcast, Cate and I discussed how to navigate an uncertain future.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

If you haven't already got your copy, you can order from our personal store here (or other outlets if you prefer).

Don't forget to follow our Facebook group here, and send us a selfie when you have your copy!

Rates will have to come down eventually...

Dwelling starts under 40k (again)

Dwelling starts were a fairly miserable 39,715 in the first quarter of 2024, down -14 per cent from a year earlier, and the third quarter in a row under 40,000. 

This is likely be at least a third below where commencements need to be in order for the government to hit its target of 1.2 million well-located homes over 5 years.

There was one bright spot in Perth, where a boom in prices has teed off a spurt of new house building.

Dwelling completions were similarly slow at only 41,329, with many developers collapsing into administration, although the number of dwellings officially under construction remains fairly elevated.

While Melbourne seems to be faring reasonably well given the prevailing conditions, in New South Wales new attached dwelling commencements have plunged to the lowest level in around a dozen years, suggesting a major dwelling shortage as the pipeline thins out.

There is, on the other hand, a healthy level of unit construction activity happening at Gold Coast and other parts of coastal south-east Queensland.

Dwellings approved but not commenced in New South Wales rose to above 16,000.

The wrap

Overall, lacklustre activity, pointing to a major shortage of dwellings in Sydney over the next few years.

Perth has a construction boom now underway, and with rising prices in Brisbane meaning that Brissie will likely be next cab off the rank.

At the macro level, we're not going to get anyway near enough dwelling supply with interest rates at these levels.

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Inflation in New Zealand came in at only +0.4 per cent in Q2 2024, taking annual inflation down to a 3-year low of 3.3 per cent.

Canada's inflation rate fell to 2.7 per cent, lower than expected, while in the UK headline inflation was flat at 2 per cent.

Services inflation looked a bit stickier than desired in the UK, but all of these countries will be seeing interest rate cuts soon.

In Australia, job ads fell another -10,000 in June to be -18 per cent lower than a year ago at 227,000, for a 34-month low.

Source: Jobs and Skills Australia

Monetary policy is working to slow the interest-rate sensitive sectors of the Aussie economy, but there's a way to go yet before inflation is assuredly contained.

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,300 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release and forthcoming release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

The foundations of property investing (Episode 1/2)

Buy Right Approach

In this first episode of two, Owen and I discuss the foundations of property investing, as discussed in the new book I co-authored with Cate Bakos, The Buy Right Approach to Property Investing.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch on YouTube here:

If you haven't already got your copy, you can order from our personal store here (or other outlets if you prefer).

Don't forget to follow our Facebook group here, and send us a selfie when you have your copy!

Rental vacancies rise during winter slowdown

Rental vacancies ease

Something we discussed on the podcast last week was a likely increase in rental vacancies during the middle of the year.

Rental markets are more flexible and adaptive than we tend to think, and although markets have been extremely tight over the past year, the market is adjusting, and with more people leaving the country than entering through May and June rental vacancy rates increased from 1.2 per cent to 1.3 per cent. 

SQM Research statistics showed Sydney recording an increase in rental vacancy rates from 1.4 per cent to 1.7 per cent, while Melbourne's vacancy rate increased from 1.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent.

SQM's figures are below:

Source: SQM Research

The trend is fairly flat still, except in Hobart where the rental market is probably easing a little.

Asking rents increased only +0.1 per cent in the capital cities and +0.3 per cent nationally over the month, pointing to lower inflation ahead (construction costs are also now rising at the slowest pace in 22 years).

It's likely that the market will be tighter again in the busier summer months, and during the summer term for international students, given that we have nearly 3 million temporary visa holders in Australia these days.

You can find SQM Research's media release here. 

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Canada's inflation rate fell to 2.7 per cent in June, with markets pricing a 93 per cent chance of a cut next month.

The UK's 2-year bond yield fell to under 4 per cent for the first time this year, and even Australia's 3-year bond yield is now trading back with a 3-handle. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,300 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release and forthcoming release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Is the property market stuck in a winter lull?

ausbiz TV

It was great to join Nadine Blayney on ausbiz TV to discuss the winter lull in listings, and what to expect for interest rates and the rest of the year.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,300 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here - follow our book release and forthcoming release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Government-aligned roles propping up labour market

Loosening labour market

On Thursday morning this week, the latest labour force figures are expected to show a modest increase in the unemployment rate from 4 per cent to 4.1 per cent.

That remains a remarkably low rate of unemployment, when you contrast this against the unemployment rate in, say, Canada of 6.4 per cent, for example. 

Stunning analysis from economist Harry Ottley at CBA shows that the reason for this has been massive growth in government-aligned or non-market employment.

The recent significantly softening trend in jobs vacancies would normally equate to an unemployment rate having soared to 5 per cent, or perhaps higher.

Yet although the unemployment and underemployment rates have softened, overall things have held up pretty well to date in Australia.

Some firms have opted to reduce hours rather than making layoffs - and more employees are working multiple roles - but the killer chart below also explains a lot, accounting for a +316,000 increase in non-market jobs over the year to March 2024.

As a share of employed persons, non-market employment has jumped to a new high of 30.6 per cent.

That's not an entirely unexpected trend for a Labor government, one might say, but it's quite a dramatic uplift nonetheless.

Huge cost overruns in projects such as the NDIS have drawn criticism for racking up billions of dollars in wasted spending, as well as for keeping the rate of inflation higher than it might otherwise have been.

Indeed, healthcare and social services has been the most prominent sector driving the trend.

Another implication of this is that the market sectors of the economy have been softening quite considerably, including retail trade, wholesale trade, hospitality, and arts and recreation, with monetary policy working to curtail household spending and consumption. 

Furthermore, this recent trend must be weighing adversely on Australia's productivity growth. 

Overall, government spending as a share of the economy has increased and is budgeted to remain high over the years ahead, which has propped up employment levels in non-market sectors of the economy.

In spite of this, CBA forecasts the unemployment rate to rise to 4½ per cent by the end of 2024. 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,300 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here - follow our book release and forthcoming release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.