Pete Wargent blogspot
Tuesday 30 August 2022
Porsche cruises towards IPO
Apartment approvals crash to decade lows
There’s no easy fix here, but a useful start would be bringing the serviceability buffer back down from 300 basis points in September.
After the next interest rate hike the lending assessment buffer in place will be effectively stress testing for a scenario which financial markets see as remote.
Alastair Lias: What’s happening around the traps?
Retail sales still high, for now
Friday 26 August 2022
Freight rates collapsing, but...
Down Under
And the latest PMI figures reported this week see the economy heading towards contractionary territory.
This is where property buyers are buying the dip
Thursday 25 August 2022
Tuesday 23 August 2022
Ben Kingsley: This is why APRA needs to ease lending buffers
Monday 22 August 2022
Is there a 'buy the dip' moment coming for property? (Livewire)
Livewire markets
A bit of a Q&A with the guys at Livewire markets here (or click on the image below):
Thursday 18 August 2022
Employment falls 41k; earnings are...rubbish
Employment falls 41k
Employment fell sharply by -40,900 last month, missing market expectations significantly, and another signal that the economy is beginning to roll over.
The wrap
Overall, this week's data dump has broadly suggested that the central bank should cool the proverbial jets, with weak wages and average hourly earnings figures, a huge surge in overseas arrivals, and a big monthly drop in total employment.
Yes, this is only one month of job declines, but the economy is going to need to generate consistent jobs growth as labour supply returns.
There may yet be a case for a 40 basis points interest rate hike next month, roughly splitting market pricing and bringing the cash rate target to a 'neater' round figure of 2.25 per cent.
Whatever, we appear to have moved one step closer to the pause.
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You can read the detailed analysis of the release with James Foster here.