Market pricing, around the world

Global markets scan

Interest rates are generally expected to decline around the world in 2024, including in Australia.

However, given that Australia (and Japan, for that matter) didn't reopen for long after many other parts of the world, it follows that out inflation rate also peaked later, and interest rates will also not fall until further down the track.

"The gaffer", Chris Weston of Pepperstone, took a gander at swap pricing to see when interest rates are first expected to fall, and how far they're likely to drop in 2024.

For Canada and the US, pencil in March for the first cut, and look for between 5 and 7 interest rate cuts respectively in 2024.

That seems like an awful lot for the US to me, though to paraphrase Sir Alex Ferguson on this Old Trafford weekend..."lads, it's the Fed." 

Source: Pepperstone

For Australia, there'll be little of chance of any easing until the middle of the year, unless geopolitical issues flare up dramatically. 

And even when a move does come, expect only a couple of cuts in 2024, with a bit more easing to come in 2025.

Source: ASX

It's set to be a fairly quiet week ahead, with the December labour force figures due out on Thursday being the main news highlight. 

The unemployment rate is likely to remain low, either at or just below 4 per cent.

I've been listening to a few interesting audiobooks over the break, including Poor Charlie's Almanack this week - with some interesting takeaways that I'll try to share some thoughts on in due course.

Have a great week.

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