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Wednesday, 14 June 2023

Construction canary in the coal mine

Rental vacancies: tight but steady

The latest ABS Arrivals & Departures figures showed that many Aussies headed overseas during the school holidays in April 2023, with short-term departures significantly higher than arrivals. 

The overseas arrivals figures will likely now be steady until the warmer summer months.

Residential rental vacancies remained steady at 1.2 per cent in May according to SQM Research.

Rental vacancies are rising significantly in Canberra and Hobart, but are generally very tight across the other six capital cities.


Capital city asking rents increased +0.6 per cent over the month to be +19.1 per cent higher over the year.

Nationally, asking rents for units (+22.1 per cent) have outpaced houses (+17.1 per cent).

Asking rents for units in Sydney were up +26 per cent over the past year.

Overall there was some easing in regional rental markets, but the capital cities remain very much a landlords market, reported SQM Research. 

Construction sector wavering

The Australian, Australian Financial Review, Sky News, and the Daily Mail reported that one of Australia's largest family-owned developers is teetering on voluntary administration (an industry giant with a 10-figure turnover and a reputation for very conservative capital management over the decades).

Whether or not that's the case, the sentiment underscores the parlous state of the construction industry.

Builders and developers are facing a maelstrom of rising interest rates and tight lending settings, and this following on from coast overruns arising from the brutal shortages of materials and labour caused by the lockdowns and international border closures.

Not to put to fine a point on it, if conservative and established players with no debt are finding the environment hard yakka, the wider industry is going to be really in trouble. 

David Berthon-Jones charts the insolvency statistics for the sector. 


Source: Aequitas

It's turning into a mess out there, even before the bombardment of recent interest rate hikes, and the pipeline for new housing and development is set to shrink significantly over the next 12 to 18 months.



Source: ABS

It's not been much fun for recent borrowers either, with 2022 vintage arrears off to the races.


Overall, this doesn't look good for the construction sector.