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Thursday, 3 August 2017

Dollar may need to fall...

Surplus misses

The trade balance on goods and services comfortably missed expectations by coming in at a seasonally adjusted surplus estimated at $856 million in June.

Imports were up by 2 per cent, while there were a few other one-off factors driving the monthly decline. Still, it's another surplus, which is not to be sniffed at given what has gone before. 

Although there won't be much in the way of a contribution to GDP growth here in the second quarter, market forecasts anticipate a strong +1.2 per cent gain in real retail sales for the three months to June to be reported tomorrow morning. 

Iron ore and coal exports will recover in due course after a soft-ish showing this time around, but the interesting thing to note here is LNG exports bounding forth to record highs, with plenty more in the post where this came from. 

With coking coal prices having spiked lately and LNG export volumes ramping up, Queensland is set to enjoy a surge in royalties and a widening trade surplus. 

Indeed, for all the talk of a mining boom that was making us 'poorer', export values are powering forth to fresh heights by the month. 

One cautionary note is the strong currency may be threatening to complicate the adjustment.

Indeed, the Aussie dollar ran all the way up from around 73 US cents in May to above 80 cents in recent days, flying in the face of a deluge of predictions to the contrary. So that could be a proverbial pain in the behind.