Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Sunday, 30 July 2017

Strong 2nd quarter for retail expected

Odds & ends

Towards the back end of last week, the ABS reported that export prices dipped by -5.7 per cent in the second quarter of 2017. 

Nevertheless, export prices remain some +22.5 per cent higher than a year ago. 

Moreover, there is potentially a solid rebound in the post for Q3, driven by the bulk commodities.

In other news, the ABS also confirmed minimal inflationary pressures in its producer prices index release.

There's no doubting that the Reserve Bank will leave rates on hold at its August meeting this week.

Week ahead

Attention will be diverted to some other news instead.

Real retail sales are expected by market forecasts to come in with a strong +1.2 per cent result for the June quarter, with possible risks to the upside on a weak deflator. 

There has been an improvement in retail momentum in recent months.

Thus, the economy is shaping up for a decent run in 2017.

The greater challenge will come in 2018 when residential construction slows.

Wednesday's building approvals figures are expected to throw out a solid result for the month of June, especially for the sectors that aren't high-rise apartments.

Even so, ongoing weakness in Perth and in apartments in Brisbane should be enough to keep the downtrend intact, with dwelling starts to slow over the year ahead.