Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Thursday, 20 July 2017

Full-time employment growth returns

Employment growth picks up

Seasonally adjusted employment increased by +14,000 in June according to the ABS, with full-time employment soaring by an outlandish +62,000. 

Rather noisy monthly figures, of course, but full-time employment has now increased by +187,000 since September 2016, which represents a marked improvement.

Total employment now sits at its highest ever level at 12,166,900. 


Annually total employment was up by +240,200 or +2.0 per cent, which is quite a way ahead of the rate required to absorb population growth. 


The unemployment rate was 5.6 per cent, with the number of unemployed persons up a notch to 728,100.  


Perhaps the most sanguine measure of how the labour force is travelling is to look at the annual change in the number of hours worked, which has increased by 3+.3 per cent over the past year, or +2.4 per cent on the smoother trend series. 


In short, there has been a steady improvement since November 2016, following a period of apparent stagnation. 

NSW approaches full employment

At the state level Victoria continues to add the most jobs on an annualised basis at +97,800 - as it needs to, given record population growth - with Queensland next up, adding +44,600.

Western Australia saw a net increase in employment of +29,500, which should in turn see the unemployment rate falling as net interstate migration has seen thousands returning to the eastern states. 


After hitting an apparent plateau, employment in New South Wales is off and running again with total employment rising by +42,800 over the past quarter sending the trend unemployment rate to its lowest level since 2008 at just 4.75 per cent. 

Small wonder that mortgage arrears are so low and still declining in Sydney.


At the other end of the spectrum, employment has now been trending down in the Northern Territory for four months, and the resident population may also be following this trend into decline.

South Australia has the highest trend unemployment rate at 7 per cent.

The wrap

Overall, and looking through the monthly noise, it was a pretty good result, consistent with gradually improving conditions.