Pete Wargent blogspot


'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Sydney Morning Herald.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Wednesday, 27 December 2017

Rush for the exits?

Shots fired!

Amazon Australia's launch was variously reported as underwhelming and a non-event after the first day of trading just a few weeks ago.

You'd think it's customary to assess business success or failure over a slightly longer period than 24 hours - especially when it's a global business with net revenue exceeding US$135 billion - though apparently not in this case!

In the early hours of Boxing Day, Amazon Down Under fired a few tasty shots in the direction of the traditional retailers by offering discounts on a wide range of goods. 

A quick look at some of the Amazon "top picks" throws up a very attractively priced Acer desktop at under $1,100, with free delivery on eligible orders (click to expand images)...

And then a Lego jungle play set at just $119 with free delivery, undercutting the competition by up to a quarter...

And a beard trimmer at $85 with free delivery (ditto)...

...and so on, and so forth.

There were also substantial discounts offered by Amazon on books, clothing, music, DVDs, and other items.

Amazon may or may not capture up to a tenth of Boxing Day's ~A$2.5 billion or so dollars of retail turnover, but the really interesting thing to see will be whether evidence emerges of widespread industry discounting.

A more detailed look at major retail lines for laptops, shavers, and a range of household goods suggests that the answer may prove to be a resounding yes in 2018. 

As Chris Weston of IG once said, dance near the exit when the disco's on fire. 

Retail deflation? It's on.