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Friday, 7 September 2018

WA turns the corner

Housing finance up...a bit

There was a moderate 0.4 per cent increase in both the seasonally adjusted number of commitments and the total value of housing finance in July 2018, with $31.4 billion of mortgages committed. 

Looking through the noise the smoothed trend figures show investment loans down by 17 per cent from a year earlier as credit has become noticeably harder to access for the purchase of rentals. 

The monthly rebound in the number of home loan commitments was driven by Western Australia and Queensland, with Tasmania and the ACT the only jurisdictions to record a solid year-on-year increase in activity. 

Despite the talk of a 'credit crunch' the average loan size has increased over the past year both for first homebuyers and for non-first homebuyers, with the upgrader market looking likely to be the strongest performing sector.  

The wrap

Overall, a slightly stronger result in July than for June and a beat on market expectations, but little in the way of respite for investors. 

I don't read as much in the way of housing market commentary these days - I have two kids and thus lots more on my plate - but the few commentators that I do read (Nerida Conisbee, Simon Pressley etc.) talk of Perth's housing market bottoming out or having bottomed out.

Based on most of the macro metrics I've looked lately at I'd take a bet that they're right.