Real-time thoughts & analysis of the markets, economy & more...
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyers & WargentAdvisory (subscription market analysis for institutional clients).
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Pete Wargent blogspot
Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).
4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.
"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.
"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.
"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.
"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.
"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.
Tuesday, 6 June 2017
Well, there you go.
With net exports set to subtract 0.7ppts from GDP growth this quarter, and public demand also undershooting expectations, there's a fair chance that the quarterly GDP print for March will be stone dead flat, or even negative.
It's a well-worn cliché, but this really underscores how GDP needs to be considered in conjunction with other measures.
With a huge surge in commodity prices - and a 6.6 per cent quarterly jump in the terms of trade - Australia got tentatively close to recording a current account surplus in the March quarter for the first time since 1975.
Alas, it was not to be! Close, but no cigar.
The current account deficit narrowed by 11 per cent to $3.1 billion.
In the second quarter, the terms of trade will follow commodity prices sharply back down.
It looks as though Australia is also attempting to pare back its reliance on net foreign debt.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will leave the cash rate on hold today at 1.50 per cent, but in light of this information it will be interesting to see if any dovish wording makes its way into the statement.