Pete Wargent blogspot


'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Sydney Morning Herald.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Tuesday, 19 May 2020

Everything surges on vaccine hopes

Risk on

Strong moves overnight in most risk assets, ostensibly on somewhat vague reports of a possible vaccine being brought to market some time.

And we were off to the races! 

  • FTSE 100 +4.4 per cent
  • Energy +8.2 per cent
  • Shell +8.3 per cent
  • BP +8.2 per cent
  • S&P 500 + 3.2 per cent
  • NASDAQ +2.4 per cent
  • DJIA +3.9 per cent
  • Emerging markets +3.9 per cent
  • Poland +5.3 per cent

Iron ore futures were +5.6 per cent to hit record highs as Brazil's iron ore supply fails, which is positive news for Australia.

Raw material inventory in China hit the lowest level in three years.


Fortescue Metals boomed +5.8 per cent to a record close of $13.28 yesterday.

Even Brazil's ETF was up +6.6 per cent.

In domestic news, Australia is steadily moving towards a reopening of the economy:

Recession impacts

On a more cautionary note, the US Federal Reserve has warned that US Q2 GDP could shrink 30 (thirty) per cent, while the unemployment rate could run as high as 25 per cent, which is Great Depression territory. 

With each passing week more and more high street brands are pulling up stumps.

Overnight Cafe Rouge and Bella Italia called in the administrators, while JC Penney announced it will shutter 30 per cent of its stores as part of its bankruptcy plan.