Pete Wargent blogspot


'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Sydney Morning Herald.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Saturday, 29 February 2020

Autumn avalanche

Autumn avalanche

Lest it wasn't already obvious, for whatever reason I seem to have developed an obsessive-compulsive routine of reporting on all ABS releases.

I'm not entirely sure why this has become so.

It does at least force me to keep abreast of what's going on in the economy - and it keeps me somewhat honest in terms of my analysis - but, anyway, it is what is is.

Due to a quirk of the calendar, the next week will see what Commsec referred to as the 'Autumn avalanche', being a veritable cascade of data releases.

Just to get ahead of the game, then, here's what will come out on Monday...

CoreLogic will report a broad-based increase in housing prices on Monday for the month of February, driven by gains in Sydney (+1.6 per cent), Melbourne (+1.2 per cent), and Brisbane/Gold Coast (+0.6 per cent).

Perth will also record a gain of +0.3 per cent, while vacancy rates have fallen in the Western Australian capital all the way down towards 2 per cent.

At the 5 capital city level, this equates to a gain or +1.2 per cent, the index being weighted as it is towards Sydney and Melbourne.

You can click on the chart below to expand it: 

The quarterly gains were +4.7 per cent for Sydney, +4.2 per cent for Melbourne, and +2 per cent for Brisbane/Gold Coast. 

The pace of gains is generally expected to cool as 2020 rumbles on, as more sellers gradually come into the market, and as yields are gradually eroded.


In other news, the latest data flows out of China were absolutely horrendous.

It's hard to recall ever seeing anything out of China as bad as this, and there must surely be a stimulus response in the post.

Interbank futures have moved remarkably quickly over the past two days to price in a highly likely RBA interest rate cut on Tuesday, and indeed two rate cuts are now fully priced in over the months ahead.