Jobs boom is over
Not all that surprisingly, given the indicators, total Aussie employment fell by -19,000 in October 2019, driven by a decline in full-time employment.
The jobs boom is over in Sydney, as previously indicated by the LMIP, ABS, and Seek vacancies reports.
And Australia's annual employment growth has now slowed to just below 2 per cent (at 1.99 per cent).
And Australia's annual employment growth has now slowed to just below 2 per cent (at 1.99 per cent).
The negative employment figures for October were driven by New South Wales, Queensland, and South Australia, with Victoria left as the last man standing in terms of solid employment growth.
Unemployment rising
The participation rate ticked down a notch to 66.0 per cent, but the unemployment rate lifted anyway from 5.20 per cent in September to a 16-month high of 5.32 per cent.
The number of unemployed persons jumped from 709,000 to 726,100, and even looking at the trend it's clear than we're drifting further away from full employment (which might be as low as 500,000 to 550,000 unemployed persons? Or even fewer?).
New South Wales has had a very low unemployment rate lately, but even with Aussie exports booming this hasn't been enough to lift wages growth much above 2 per cent, and now the unemployment rate is rising again.
In Queensland the unemployment rate is far too high at 6½ per cent, and a number of other states are faring little better.
The trend year-on-year change in monthly hours worked slowed to just +1.7 per cent, which is also too slow given the growth in the labour force.
Finally, the underemployment rate increased from 8.3 per cent to 8.5 per cent, while the underutilisation rate increased to 13.8 per cent, which is the highest level in more than a year.
The wrap
Full employment drifts ever further away, while the forward-looking indicators point to a further slowdown in hiring ahead.
Recent market pricing for interest rates has been a little baffling at times.
Given that full employment isn't even on the radar screen, and nor is the inflation target across the entire forecast period, a rate cut by February is deemed probable (though why wait for months when inflation is miles below target and unemployment is rising?).
Recent market pricing for interest rates has been a little baffling at times.
Given that full employment isn't even on the radar screen, and nor is the inflation target across the entire forecast period, a rate cut by February is deemed probable (though why wait for months when inflation is miles below target and unemployment is rising?).
