NOM to rise
There was election talk of reducing the permanent visa program into Australia, but in truth this has been more than offset by a surge in temporary visa issuance to a total of almost 2.2 million (up from just 1.6 million in 2012).
A closer look at the 2019-20 Budget assumptions shows that net overseas migration is actually projected to increase to +271,300 in 2020, while remaining above the present levels in 2021 and 2022 as well.
This is relevant to the absorption of new apartments, since it implies Aussie population growth running hot at about +400,000 per annum.
Yes, we're building more apartments through this cycle, but net long-term arrivals are also now running at close to double the long-run average since the 1970s.
Source: Federal Budget 2019/20
This is relevant to the absorption of new apartments, since it implies Aussie population growth running hot at about +400,000 per annum.
Yes, we're building more apartments through this cycle, but net long-term arrivals are also now running at close to double the long-run average since the 1970s.
Today the ABS released the overseas arrivals and departures figures, which showed that net permanent and long-term arrivals did indeed increase to +299,870 over the year to September (up from +285,430 a year earlier).
The trend for short-term arrivals has pushed relentlessly higher over the past year, despite a recent blip in the number of visitors from China.
A factor which could cause immigration to be lower than expected might be if more international students than expected choose not to hang around after graduation.
In saying that, there's been no decline in short-term education arrivals, which hit another record high over the year to September.
With the Commonwealth Games sugar hit now having worn off for Queensland, the Sunshine State will need to target tourism with renewed vigour.
Indeed, more broadly visitors have increasingly been attracted to locations such as Tasmania and the ACT, so there's potentially some marketing work to be done by all of the major states.
The annual number of short-term arrivals from Hong Kong has only pushed modestly higher, up +4 per cent over the year to September.
But as the protests - and now shootings of protesters - continue, more expats are understandably likely to leave permanently.
Certainly more capital is being repatriated to Australia.
Certainly more capital is being repatriated to Australia.
