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Wednesday, 20 November 2019

Job vacancies fall for a 10th month

Jobs drying up

Job vacancy ads fell by -0.9 per cent to be lower for a 10th consecutive month, according to the LMIP vacancies index. 

Vacancies fell across all 8 of the measured occupational groups, and are no longer at a level that appears likely to improve the unemployment rate. 

The index is down -8.5 per cent year-on-year, with notable double digit declines for machinery operators, technicians and tradies, and managers, and labourers. 

The historical trends suggest that a slump in the vacancies trend will lead the unemployment rate higher over the following 12 months.

The index has proven itself to be a sound leading indicator, and it suggests deterioration in 2020, rather than any progress towards full employment. 

In New South Wales total ads were down by -14.4 per cent year-on-year, and have slumped from 71,000 at their March 2018 peak to 57,000. 

Western Australia was in positive territory for the year, but generally the picture has worsened.

The data doesn't capture all job vacancies, rather a sample of online vacancies from 350 occupations via SEEK and other portals. 

However, it’s proven to be a decent indicator and it suggests that the unemployment rate will rise in 2020, with no improvement likely in wages growth or inflation expectations either.