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Thursday, 19 March 2026

Unemployment rate rises to 4.3pc

Unemployment rate rises

There's been a very recent and evident sentiment shift in Australia since the interest rate hikes in February and March, which is perhaps set to result in slower hiring.

For the month of February, headline employment was solid enough, increasing by +48,900.

But at the same time full-time employment dropped by -30,500, as more of the older (aged 65 plus) cohort moved into part-time work, resulting in fewer hours worked overall.


As the participation increased to 66.9 per cent, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 4.1 per cent to 4.3 per cent.

Nothing alarming just yet, but certainly one to watch over the next few months. 


The underutilisation also increased a little to around 10 per cent.


Finally on the employment figures, and for what it's worth, the ABS estimated that the growth in civilian population aged 15 and over increased by +1.83 per cent over the year to February 2026. 


Overall, not a labour force survey report that should be too consequential in itself, but the rising unemployment rate will be one to keep an eye on.

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Population increases

The ABS also released the latest estimated resident population figures for the September 2025 quarter, which confirmed that net overseas migration has moved higher, and far above the government's previous assumptions.

Net overseas migration increased to +87,800 over the September quarter, resulting in quarterly population growth of +112,600.

Annual population growth - having bottomed out in March 2025 - increased to +423,600.


Source: ABS

At the state level absolute population growth was highest in Victoria (+122,000), New South Wales (+105,600), and Queensland (+97,300), but the annual rate of population growth was fastest by far in Western Australia (+2.2 per cent). 

Source: ABS

As expected, it looks like population growth bottomed out a year ago and has been re-accelerating since that time, as reflected in rental market pressures. 

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