Hiring freeze
The obvious doesn't really need stating here that things have seriously heated up in the Middle East, and this has sent oil prices soaring, with the Brent crude oil price surging to above $90.
Ouch. A couple of weeks ago we had the luxury of unleaded fuel prices perhaps in the mid-150s, now you might be paying around $2.20 or perhaps a lot more for a litre, depending upon where you fill up.
Gas and shipping prices also seem likely to experience a surge of upwards pressure, which will lead to inflationary worries.
It's less clear how long these pressures will persist for - it's doubtful anyone can say for sure - though no doubt the US will doing its utmost to secure all the oil it can.
Generally central banks might hope to 'look through' temporary supply shocks, particularly if sentiment is also going to take a corresponding hit, but this case is harder to argue for when the headline rate of inflation is already well above target.
Back to the actual data, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest US nonfarm payrolls data, which showed an increase in the unemployment rate, albeit just to 4.4 per cent.
Clearly that's not a particularly high level of unemployment, but the jobs growth figures have slowed significantly, and the participation rate fell to the lowest level since 2021 at 62 per cent.
In fact, nonfarm payroll employment fell by -92,000 in February, and the 3-month average employment gain has slowed to near zero.
Source: BLS
Clearly this isn't a great dynamic with rising inflation looking likely into an economy with so little net hiring.
Markets have been twitchy all weekm but to date retail investors have appeared happy enough to buy the dips.
Indeed, the S&P 500 index for the year to date is down by just -1.7 per cent (and is still up 16.8 per cent from a year earlier).
That's pretty remarkable when you consider that even before the Middle conflict flared up in earnest markets were already roiling on concerns around private credit, and SaaS stock prices were walloped on concerns of AI disruption.
Interesting week or two ahead by the looks of it.
---
1. Download our property buying guide
Download our free property buying guide here.
You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here.
Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing.
2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors
Listen in to our podcasts
The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.
And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.
3. Subscribe for my free daily blog
Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 4.6 million hits here.
You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 16,500 followers.
By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.
My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here.
4. Work with me privately
For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.
