Pete Wargent blogspot

PERSONAL/BUSINESS COACH | PROPERTY BUYER | ANALYST

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Tuesday, 31 March 2026

Fuel prices going ballistic

Pain at the pump

A slightly bemusing anecdote for you.

Popped into the servo this morning, and noted diesel prices had blazed to fresh all-time highs at an astonishing 329.9 cents per litre...


In the 15 minutes it took me to inhale a medium long black and a Krispy Kreme donut the diesel price was increased - not once - but twice to 335.9 cents per litre. 


We often get the creeping sense that prices are sneaking quietly higher - we see it in the $7 coffee or the $24.95 breakfast. 

But at the moment we can literally see prices rising before our eyes and in real time.

The government announced that fuel excise will be halved effective from tomorrow until the end of the financial year - a period of 3 months. 

This is expected to cut 26.3 cents per litre from the price of fuel, but at the current rate of progress that'll be absorbed pretty quickly (this wasn't a popular move with economists, but it may make some voters a bit happier). 

That would equate to a saving of about 13 bucks from a 50-litre tank of fuel, but of course prices could easily rise much further from here.

While not remotely pretending to be an expert in the space, from chatting to industry specialists it sounds like there is to be no 'quick fix' to the oil shortage challenge, given the damage incurred to infrastructure, the complexity of modern day supply chains, and the already depleted level of reserves in Australia.

Unsurprisingly ANZ's consumer sentiment index saw a huge spike in inflation expectations, and consumer sentiment nosedived to the lowest level the history of the survey...which dates back to 1972.

Australia's 3-year bond yield was a little lower today at 4.66 per cent, down from 4.83 per cent back on March 23, as investors shifted their focus from inflation to recession risks. 

Housing credit peak

Credit growth was 0.6 per cent in February 2026, according to the RBA's financial aggregates data, rising to 7.8 per cent over the year. 


Although investor credit growth rose to 9.2 per cent over the year, the monthly pace of increase peaked back in December, and has slowed in the face of rising mortgage rates.


Total housing credit growth was 7.1 per cent over the year to February, up from 5.7 per cent a year earlier. 


The housing credit impulse also peaked back in December, suggesting that we'll be seeing a housing market slowdown in Sydney and Melbourne, and less punchy price growth in Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide as 2026 progresses and as mortgage rates rise. 


Westpac now predicts that the cash rate target will peak at a cycle-high of 4.85 per cent before coming back down next year. 

In the meantime there have been many stories about cancelled housing projects in the face of steepling costs, suggesting that rental vacancy rates could hit all-time lows by 2027.

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In other news junior pay rates are to be abolished, meaning a pay rise of up to 42 per cent for more than 500,000 young workers, to be phased in over four years.

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