- Diesel has surged to roughly $3 per litre, with Australia especially exposed to fuel shocks; Pete notes this is already flowing through to transport, airfares, freight, food, and service pricing.
- February inflation came in at 3.7% headline and 3.3% core, but both hosts stress that this was effectively pre-conflict data, with much bigger inflation impacts still to come through fuel and housing costs.
- Consumer sentiment is at its weakest since 1973, services PMI dropped from 52.8 to 46.2, and market pricing has shifted toward a terminal cash rate of about 4.65% by December. Pete also notes bond yields spiked to 4.9% before easing back.
- First-home buyers are still transacting despite the nerves, helped by the 5% deposit scheme and a strong desire to exit the rental market. Chris says his team had six first-home buyers purchase in a week, even as investors begin to look more fragile.
- The market is splitting: premium property has cooled, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, while the lower end remains highly competitive. Pete says he is still seeing no evidence of declines at entry-level price points, even as high-end sentiment weakens.
- Development feasibility is deteriorating fast. Pete cites producer-price inputs like copper pipes and tiles up 82% since 2019. Both hosts mention clients cancelling developments because they would now lose money by building.
- Builders are under renewed strain and profit incentive worries: new home sales fell in March, insolvencies are rising
- Listener Q&A: fixing part of a mortgage in a rising-rate environment, and whether a much larger inherited deposit should change ownership percentages inside a marriage.
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