Arrivals remain high
There were a record 1.16 million permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia over the year to January 2026, according to the ABS.
Netting out permanent and long-term departures, it was the highest January figure on record for net permanent and long-term arrivals (+57,270).
It was also the second biggest 12 months on record for permanent and long-term arrivals (+494,540), just shy of the record high set in the post-COVID rebound of February 2024.
February is normally a bigger month for long-term arrivals too.
With all the usual caveats - any way you to try to spin this - these are big numbers.
The ABS definition of 'net overseas migration' may produce a different and lower result when the formal estimated resident population figures are released, but you only need to go to a few rental open homes to know that in real time population pressures have been resurgent over the past 12 to 15 months.
Recession risk rising?
After yesterday's split decision (5 votes to 4) on increasing the policy rate, markets are looking at about an each-way chance of a follow-up hike in May, and a terminal cash rate target of around 4½ per cent.
Source: ASX
While it may be partially disguised by rapid population growth, the risk of recessionary conditions in late 2026 has increased.
It's only one data point, but Jobs & Skills Australia reported that job vacancies fell by a seasonally adjusted -5 per cent in February 2026, driven by a fairly sharp -6.2 per cent decline in New South Wales, and with all states and territories recording declines.
Source: Jobs & Skills Australia
The ABS will release its full Labour Force survey for the month of February tomorrow morning.
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