Metals crash to earth
It was a case of 'no crying at the casino' overnight as the gold price pulled back by -15 per cent and silver prices crashed -38 per cent in a hectic 24 hours of trading.
It's hard to convey just how extraordinary this level of volatility is for such huge asset classes, but the dollars per ounce daily moves for silver are far in excess of anything previously seen, with a parabolic move upwards paving the way for this record-breaking down day.
May you live in interesting times!
Investor credit growth accelerates
It was a much quieter close to the week in Australia, thankfully, with the Reserve Bank of Australia released its Financial Aggregates figures for the month of December 2025, allowing us to take stock of the calendar year just passed.
Housing credit growth strengthened into the end of the year, rising by a seasonally adjusted 0.69 per cent for the month of December, and with the annual growth rising from 6.6 per cent to 6.9 per cent to finish the year.
Very solid.
The growth has largely been driven by investors of late, with the monthly credit growth of 0.96 per cent for investor credit the strongest monthly figure since 2007.
This gives a hint as to why APRA pre-emptively jumped in with some macroprudential speed limits, though it may well prove to be the case that an increase in housing supply combined with a rate hike or two take cares of any potential risks in 2026 without the need for firmer actions.
Over the year broad money growth was 7.2 per cent, while credit growth finished the year at a surprisingly strong 7.7 per cent, perhaps hinting at looser financial conditions than was previously thought.
Business credit growth was solid all the way through the final months of the year, rising to 9.7 per cent for the year ended December 2025.
The M3 measure of the money supply has increased by 38.3 per cent over the past 5 years, reflecting why it's a time many housing market participants want to hold debt and assets.
The housing credit impulse picked up from the middle of 2025 and accelerated into the end of the year.
Capital city housing prices rose 9.2 per cent over the year to January 2026, according to Cotality, with Perth and Brisbane leading the way with outsized price increases.
On this evidence, it looks like more to come in 2026.
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