Jobs growth stalls
The labour force survey for the month of August 2025 was disappointing, with employment falling by -5,400, seasonally adjusted, including a -40,900 fall in full-time employment.
Hours worked also contracted by -0.4 per cent over the month.
The 3-month average for employment growth fell to just +7,700, now tracking far below the level consistently required to hold the unemployment rate down.
There was also a significant decline in the participation rate in August, however, from 67 per cent to 66.8 per cent, and as such the unemployment rate held at 4.24 per cent, seasonally adjusted, though the trend has evidently been running higher for most of the past three years.
Somewhat surprisingly, the underemployment rate dropped back to just 5.7 per cent, well below the 6½ per cent seen a year earlier.
Overall, though, this was a pretty weak result, with little concrete evidence to date that private sector employment growth is going to take over adequately from the public sector.
The Aussie dollar initially pulled back from 66½ US cents to around 66.35 cents on the release, reflecting the weaker than expected news.
Financial markets are pricing a 25 basis points interest rate cut for November, and a further cut in 2026.
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