RBA releases Minutes; cuts are priced in

Futures markets settle

The Reserve Bank of Australia released its latest Board Meeting minutes for April 2025 today.

Unless the risks were noted to be balanced, there also wasn't much in there to spook markets, with core inflation anticipated to continue easing gradually.

It looks like the May meeting is primed for a reassessment of where things stand, given that there are a couple of key economic data points to be released between now and then.

Markets have now settled on the May meeting for a 25 basis points interest rate cut to be a done deal.

In fact, according to OIS swaps there's about a 1 in 3 chance priced in for a jumbo rate cut of 50 basis points, though that certainly isn't the base case, unless this week's labour force report prints horribly and the inflation figures stumble to the downside on April 30. 

Looking further ahead, it is implied by swaps that about five interest rate cuts are priced in by the end of the year.

Source: Bloomberg

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