Housing supply falters
A range of promises were made in the previous election campaign and beyond about housing supply, but with high interest rates and costs of construction having soared they've come to nought.
New house commencements in the private sector fell -6 per cent to around 26,000 in the December 2024 quarter.
New attached dwelling commencements also fell -6 per cent to around 14,000.
The figures aren't horrendous in a historical context, but the estimated population growth over the year to September 2024 was a mammoth +484,000, so clearly housing supply is failing to keep pace with demand.
Actual dwelling completions were flat at around 44,000 for the quarter.
The market delivered fewer than 65,000 attached dwellings (units, apartments, townhouses, 'plexes) over the course of 2024, so the housing shortage is going to get plenty worse before it gets better.
The long road ahead
The number of dwellings under construction eased further, and has now fallen by -12 per cent from 243,000 at the 2022 highs to 213,000 by the end of December (and the figure will be lower today).
There are some bright spots for new unit supply - notably the Gold Coast, where developers are making premium product work profitably - but overall the trend is down.
Finally, there were around 34,000 dwellings approved but not yet commenced, with low margins and record insolvencies across the construction and development sector weighing against new housing supply.
The Housing Accord target called for 1.2 million homes over 5 years, but so far housing starts are tracking about -30 per cent below that level.
2025 should be a better year for housing supply, but clearly it will take time to address the cumulative shortage.
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