Private sector has stalled
Australia recorded a sixth consecutive current account deficit in the September quarter.
Export values have been hit by lower commodity prices of late, and services exports were also lower, with fewer international students commencing their studies this semester.
The net primary income deficit narrowed to the smallest result since 2021, however, with Aussie corporates paying lower dividends to overseas investors of late.
It looks as though net trade will add just a paltry 0.1ppt to GDP growth in Q3.
Australia's net foreign debt of $1.3 trillion is just beginning to creep up again as a share of the GDP.
There is very little private sector growth to speak of in the economy now.
James Foster delved into the details as ever...right
here!
Government spending to drive GDP
On the other hand, heavy public sector spend on infrastructure (and out-of-control NDIS blowouts) should add around 0.7ppt to growth, and at least keep things positive for Q3 overall.
In other news, the ABS reported an increase of +53,200 dwellings in the September quarter to 11¼ million, though this quarterly figure will no doubt be revised lower, as it practically always is, with the total number of dwellings increasing by a lacklustre +171,000 over the year.
The total value of dwelling stock increased to $11.1 trillion - which is a big number! - though perhaps not quite so big as compared to 'only' around $2.3 trillion of Aussie mortgage debt.
The derived mean dwelling price thus increased by +$9,300 to $985,000 over the quarter, with strong gains over the past year reported for Western Australia, South Australia, and Queensland.
The total value of the dwelling stock to nominal GDP looks to be slightly higher over the past year, at around 4.1x.
Overall, it looks as though GDP growth in the September quarter will be solidly in positive territory for growth of about 1.2 per cent over the year, with high levels of government spending once again papering over the widening cracks in the private sector.
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