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Saturday, 7 December 2024

US unemployment rises, rate cut to follow

Unemployment ticks up

US nonfarm payrolls came in close to expectations, with a very decent increase in employment of +227,000 in November. 

There were also positive revisions to the preceding two months totalling +56,000.

Average hourly earnings were solid too, rising +0.4 per cent over the month, and +4 per cent over the year.

However, measures of slack were softer.

The underemployment rate increased from 7.7 per cent to 7,8 per cent.

Importantly, the unemployment rate also increased to 4.2 per cent.


Looking to a few decimal places, at 4.246 per cent, we were pretty close to rounding up to 4.3 per cent, and this figure is back up close to the July highs for this cycle.

Crude oil prices also -2 per cent to $67 fell as OPEC delayed production cuts, and bond yields fell.

This should make an interest rate cut for the Federal Reserve an easier decision for December, priced as 87 per cent likely.