Immigration remains high
For a second consecutive month, permanent and long-term arrivals were actually running higher than a year earlier.
Over the year to October 2024, net permanent and long-term immigration was still running at a scorching high of +448,090 (as compared to a similarly wild +440,300 over the year to October 2023).
This was, at least, -10 per cent below the all-time highs recorded in February, earlier this year, but nevertheless high levels of net immigration remain a challenge for the government, given the ongoing housing shortages.
Short-term arrivals into Australia also continued to recover, although they remain well below pre-pandemic levels for the time being.
Tomorrow, the ABS provides a full update on national and state level population statistics for the quarter to June 2024.
Over the year to March, including natural population growth (births minus deaths), total population growth in Australia was still extremely high at +615,300 or +2.32 per cent.
Population growth was extraordinarily strong in Western Australia (+3.1 per cent), Victoria (+2.7 per cent), and Queensland (+2.5 per cent), while population growth was hardly sluggish in New South Wales at +167,700.
I expect to see population growth over the year to June 2024 to slow a little to around +2.2 per cent.
With around 30 per cent of Aussies born overseas, it won't be long before English born residents drop to below 900,000, to be overtaken in quick time by Indian-born residents, which have recorded electric growth over the past decade.
Source: ABS
Little wonder, perhaps, that the Australia versus India Boxing Day Test cricket match in Melbourne has seen a record 100,000 or so tickets sell out in such a short time!
It will also be interesting to get an update on interstate migration, with south-east Queensland having been a major beneficiary of working from home trends and retirement moves over recent years.
Jobs update due
Also tomorrow morning, we get an important update on the state of the labour market.
After a slow month in October, it seems likely that we'll get a solid rebound for November 2024 for jobs growth, possibly with a surprise temporary upside boost from Black Friday hiring.
The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent last month, and it wasn't too far from rounding up to 4.2 per cent.
The median market forecast is for an uptick to 4.2 per cent this month, but underemployment rate measures have remained tight through the calendar year to date.
Looking ahead, most of the leading indicators (including the NAB survey) suggest that the labour market does finally look set to soften from here.
The latest IVI Index from Jobs & Skills Australia showed online job advertisements falling by -1.9 per cent last month (or 4,200 job ads), and -14.9 per cent over the year (or -37,900 job ads).
Source: Aus Gov
The biggest falls last month were seen in Victoria (-4.5 per cent, or -2,300 job ads) and Western Australia (-4.7 per cent, or -1,300 job ads), with five of the states/territories recording a monthly decline.
If I was a currency trader - which I'm not - I'd probably position for a surprisingly strong result for jobs growth tomorrow, but then a weaker release for the month of December 2024, when that's reported in a month's time.
Finally, monetary policy is being hotly debated on social media, with market pricing apparently looking for a cash rate target of about 3½ per cent by November 2025...which seems to be the supposed neutral rate, or thereabouts.
Labor-aligned economists have been busy applying enormous pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates ahead of next year's election - with the government's popularity and approval rating fading somewhat - and depending on the upcoming data, they might just about get their wishes granted.
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