CBA on the inflation 'shock' and awe

Panic stations!

The good guys CBA produced a neat graph showing the ongoing progress to the inflation target.

Not for the first time, the monthly inflation figure jumped back a little bit, but then again this isn't all that unexpected when you look at how the figures are updated on the monthly prices indicator.

Almost every leading indicator is pointing to weaker labour force figures and weaker ages growth ahead, even if the government is crush-loading the rental market. 

I also wonder a bit if the seasonal adjustments are working quite as well as they used to.

Certainly there have been a few challenges with retail seasonality and the labour force figures, so I wouldn't be all that surprised if inflation in Q2 suddenly drops again, depending on what happens with fuel prices. 

Source: ABS

Overall, I reckon if you'd asked at the end of the "lockdown-and-border-closures" 2022 calendar year, and we could've banked inflation falling from 7.8 per cent to 3.6 per cent over the course of five quarters, policymakers would've been thrilled and bitten your hand off.

The low hanging fruit now having been picked, the final part of the journey may prove to be the trickiest part to navigate. 

Onwards!

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