Labour market is easing (gradually, then suddenly)

Labour market easing

Everyone was watching closely to see if last month's unemployment rate 'shock' to the downside was an anomaly.

In March, the unemployment rate did increase, but only fairly moderately in the end from 3.71 per cent to 3.84 per cent, on a seasonally adjusted basis. 

Employment fell modestly over the month, down by -6,600, but the total number of employed persons held close to a record high, at above 14¼ million. 

The number of unemployed persons, seasonally adjusted, increased by +20,600, to a still modest 569,900.

Overall, the lower participation rate has stopped unemployment rates from rising further to date.

So far, so unremarkable, but those with their ears to the ground are picking up somewhat different vibes.

Recruitment plans are diving, anecdotally, and the latest figures on company insolvencies - especially in the construction sector, but also now elsewhere - are increasingly worrying. 

Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro with the chart:

Almost every other indicator is pointing to rising unemployment as well, and Australia will probably follow New Zealand and Canada into an ongoing economic slowdown. 

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