Pete Wargent blogspot

PERSONAL/BUSINESS COACH | PROPERTY BUYER | ANALYST

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Sydney Morning Herald.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Tuesday, 12 December 2023

Population growth to dial back, at 27 million

Tighter visa requirements

Having hit 25,650 as at Q1 2020, Australia's estimated resident population more or less stalled for 21 months, with many temporary residents and students leaving the country, and with immigration paused.

When the borders reopened, population growth naturally soared back in 2022.

Increasing at a pace of 1,800 persons per day, or an annual pace of 650,000, the resident population will round at 2023 at 27 million.  

Essentially the population of Australia is back on the same trend it would have been at if the pandemic had never happened. 


The government has copped a lot of flak for this, but it was probably inevitable.

Temporary visa holder number increased by more than 1 million as the students, tourists, and working holiday makers returned.

Permanent migration visa processing has also been operating at full tilt, in order to tackle the labour shortage.

Even now the unemployment rate is still as low as 3.7 per cent. 

Record low rental vacancy rates and poor polling mean that the government is compelled to make some announcements related to slowing population growth.

In reality, population growth will slow naturally in 2023, as the net growth in the number of international students normalised. 

We won't see population growth like 2023 again any time soon, but more likely it will soften towards around 450,000 next year. 

The government did what it had to do, and continues to do so. 

The temporary skilled migration income threshold will be lifted to $70,000, but this will barely have any impact on student numbers over the next two years. 

Visas for those with specialist skills and earning $135,000 plus will be fast-tracked and processed within 7 days. 

---

Inflation expectations fell from 5.6 per cent to 5.0 per cent on the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan reading.

Let's see if that sticks this time!


Pre-pandemic, the inflation expectations reading was tracking at around 4 per cent to 4½ per cent (and inflation was undershooting the 2 to 3 per cent target at that time). 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

  1. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

  1. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

  1. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.