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Friday, 20 January 2023

Close to the top

Peak rates approaches

Macquarie Macro Strategy charts the rapid decline in job ads, from SEEK's index:


With housing starts crashing, the peak of the hiking cycle must be getting close. 


We still have the inflation figures for the final quarter of 2022 to be reported next week, so one more wave of wild hyperbole to go through, even though the forward-looking indicators are obviously far softer. 

The median market forecast is for headline inflation to slow from 1.8 per cent in Q3 to 1.6 per cent in Q4, while the annual pace for the trimmed mean reading appears likely to peak at around 6½ per cent.