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Thursday, 19 January 2023

Unemployment now rising steadily

Employment market cooling

Employment declined by -14,600 in December, while the November figure was also revised lower.

This leaves total employment some way lower than previously had been expected at 13.74 million.


The participation rate dropped back from 66.8 per cent to 66.6 per cent in December, effectively keeping a lid on the unemployment rate figure reported. 

Still, the revised unemployment rate has increased a little since October, with the number of unemployed persons creeping higher to around 500,000 by the end of the 2022 calendar year. 


A zoomed out graph shows that the unemployment rate essentially bottomed out at around 3½ per cent in July last year. 


Each of the most populous states saw modest employment declines over the month, but nevertheless New South Wales has been the standout economy of late.

New South Wales still has a remarkably low unemployment rate of just 3.1 per cent, perhaps accounting for record low mortgage delinquencies. 


Monthly hours worked also declined in December, so it was a soft result overall.

A part of the shortage of labour has been due to workforce illness, with more than 600,000 persons still working reduced hours in December, although the latest COVID wave seems to have since passed by now.  


The soft result saw bond yields aplenty plummeting below the cash rate target, with the important 3-year yield dropping to well below 3 per cent. 


Cash rate futures markets also dialed back interest rate hike expectations on the release, with the terminal cash rate for this cycle now expected to be around 3½ per cent.