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Thursday 26 January 2023

Bank of Canada reaches peak; set to pause rates

Canada peaks: one and done

There had been some thinking today the Bank of Canada might possibly pause interest rates, although markets still expected - and were positioned for - a hike.

In the event, we got a bit of both.

The Bank hiked the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4½ per cent, but also signaled a pause ahead to assess the impact of rate hikes to date.


Source: Bank of Canada

Obviously there could yet be further tightening if deemed necessary, but it sounds very much like that's the peak of the cycle for Canada.

Certainly that's how markets have read it.



PM Trudeau will be relieved if so!

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There should be more and more reports like this over the weeks and months ahead. 

In the UK wholesale electricity prices are trading -34 per cent lower than a month ago, and are now below pre-Ukraine war levels.


The warm winter weather in Europe has been a remarkable and rather unexpected boost, and markets now even expect the Bank of England to be easing interest rates before the year is out.