Balance of payments
The subdued news flows continued this morning with a negative result for retail turnover in July taking the annual growth in turnover down to just 2.4 per cent.
We will, however, be spared the ignominy of a negative GDP result, with the current account balance storming to its first surplus since June 1975, driven by both export prices and volumes.
There's a bit of a mixed story here, too, to be fair.
Iron ore prices have been way above forecasts, and export volumes for LNG and coal were also strong.
But imports have been weak in line with the soft domestic conditions, a dynamic which has contributed significantly to the trade and current account surpluses.
Public demand will also contribute to GDP this quarter, so the end result will likely be modest growth.
You can work through the arithmetic with James Foster here, if you're so inclined!
Public demand will also contribute to GDP this quarter, so the end result will likely be modest growth.
You can work through the arithmetic with James Foster here, if you're so inclined!
Net foreign debt was about $1.1 trillion in the June quarter.
I discussed some of the risks arising from foreign debt here.
Rates falling
The RBA was on hold today, but fixed home loan rates nevertheless continue to fall, with more cuts expected.
Chart via RateCity:
Chart via RateCity:
5-year fixed rates are now available with a 2-handle, and overall more than 30 lenders are offering fixed mortgage rates from below 3 per cent.
