Housing rebound
CoreLogic reported the expected rebound in housing prices in August 2019, led by Sydney and Melbourne.
Remarkably just one solitary month of solid gains was enough to see some commentators immediately flip their lids and call for yet further tweaks to credit rationing.
But unless I've missed something, fiddling with and fine-tuning lending rules to target one data provider's monthly housing price index isn't part of the regulatory agenda.
Nuts, indeed...but this is the age of the 24/7 news cycle, after all.
Succinctly put, Ms. Quick.
Today's data dump suggested that Australia may well already be in recession, and it's time that Australia parks its nebulous financial stability target to get the economy moving.
After years of undershoot, implied expectations show markets doubt the commitment to achieving the inflation target; now we're on the cusp of spooking the horses with headlines screaming about a recession.
Negative GDP print?
They called it a data tsunami, but it looks more like an spattering of drizzle so far.
A couple of brighter spots from the June 2019 Business Indicators figures included record mining and gross corporate profits in the June quarter (although notably the iron ore price has since corrected).
And the wages and salaries account recorded 4.7 per cent growth over the year - on solid net hiring more so than meaningful pay rises - the best annual result since March 2018.
But that was about all of the good news, and economic growth in the June quarter - if there is any - is going to be another fizzer.
GDP wipes out (look through it, lads!)
The conflicting takeaway is that the Federal Budget is almost certainly now running at a surplus thanks to record mining profits and labour force participation, while growth in the economy has totally stalled.
Inventories for the second quarter came in negative at -0.9 per cent versus 0.3 per cent expected - and since Q1 was significantly positive (it's the second derivative that feeds into GDP) this will punch an ugly hole in the quarterly national accounts.
There's a very real chance that this blow could swing GDP growth into a negative result on Wednesday.
Elsewhere, ANZ's job ads dropped by -2.8 per cent, thereby confirming an unwelcome downtrend that's following building approvals lower (which is what we've seen in every previous cycle).
There was also nil - zero - monthly inflation in August.
Mineral exploration was solid but, meh, and we'll cover off that in a separate post.
The Reserve Bank will likely leave interest rates on hold tomorrow, but Wednesday's national accounts are shaping into another 'please explain' scenario.
The Treasurer's already cottoned onto it: it was all due to the election, apparently!
The Treasurer's already cottoned onto it: it was all due to the election, apparently!
