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Monday 21 January 2019

New home sales plunge again

New home sales dry up

New home sales plunged another 7 per cent in the month of December 2018.

Transaction levels are now 15 per cent lower than a year earlier according to Housing Industry Association (HIA) surveys.

Private new home sales are now floundering at the lowest level since 2012.

Source: HIA

Unit approvals were also 54 per cent lower than a year earlier in November.

The HIA sees home building activity contracting throughout 2019, perhaps very sharply.

Yield curve inverts

More and more economists think that the impact of credit tightening has been too severe for the economy to handle, and are set to call for rate cuts in 2019. 

Financial markets recognise that the RBA isn't keen to cut unless it absolutely has to - financial stability, although yet to be actually defined, is considered paramount - and are pricing an each way bet of a cut by the end of 2019.

Futures markets have the curve inverted all the way out until the middle of CY2020.


Jobs figures are set to be the highlight on Thursday morning this week.

Median market forecasts are calling for an increase in total of employment of about 20,000 in December, and for the unemployment rate to be steady at 5.1 per cent.