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Thursday, 31 January 2019

Melbourne unemployment under 4pc

Desperately seeking NAIRU

Greater Sydney recorded an unemployment rate of just 4 per cent for the month of December 2018.

But, as indicated elsewhere, Greater Melbourne is now surging to the fore, with an unemployment rate for the month of just 3.95 per cent, increasingly reflecting an extraordinary rate of improvement.

On an annual average basis both cities continue to see their respective unemployment rates falling, and very quickly so in Melbourne's case. 

Nominal GDP growth looks set to remain at levels commensurate with stronger income growth.

The terms of trade surged in Q4, with the export price index now up 43 per cent since the lows of early 2016.

Export price indices for the bulks have almost never been so favourable.

Will the wage price index for Q4 2018 begin to reflect rising wages at last, at least in Sydney and Melbourne?

Still oodles of slack elsewhere.