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Thursday, 3 January 2019

Commodity prices up 15.3pc in 2018

Stroke of luck

The Reserve Bank of Australia released its latest index of commodity prices which showed the index led by higher coking coal, LNG, and iron ore prices in 2018. 

In Aussie dollar terms the index was up by 15.3 per cent last year, according to preliminary estimates. 

Export values are at record highs, largely thanks to LNG exports going parabolic, and phenomenally high coal export values. 

And the Aussie dollar has now fallen to 69.8 US cents which will pump export values even higher again (true, a bit of Chinese stimulus wouldn't go amiss).

Company profits were the highest on record last year - largely thanks to resources companies making hay - and nominal GDP growth is heading back towards 6 per cent, a dynamic which tends to foreshadow wage increases. 

Better to be lucky than smart, as they say!


Update: the Aussie dollar temporarily dived 3 per cent to a 10-year low of 67.5 cents, with very little liquidity.

That's the lowest since the financial crisis.