Pete Wargent blogspot

PERSONAL/BUSINESS COACH | PROPERTY BUYER | ANALYST

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Sydney Morning Herald.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Monday, 3 December 2018

Gold in them thar hills

Commodities strength in 2018

For all the gloomy reporting out there at the moment, the Reserve Bank of Australia reported today that its index of commodity prices increased by 19 per cent over the past year in Aussie dollar terms, in turn leading towards a windfall of revenues and tax receipts. 

The soaring result for the year to October was driven by a surge in iron ore, LNG, and coking coal prices, all of which are key commodities for Australia.

The value of exports from Australia has exploded since the turn of the century.

Paradoxically the ALP is now trying to position itself as 'sort of anti-coal' - depending on where they are campaigning, of course - as a scaled down version of Adani project once again hoves into view. 

The hypocrisy is almost, but not quite, beyond belief - Labor presided over much of the greatest resources investment boom in 150 years - however, the rapidly disintegrating Coalition has made itself all but unelectable, so all the ALP really needs to do is set back, grab some popcorn, and enjoy the implosion. 

Getting away from the politics and back to the data at hand, the quarterly trend for mineral exploration spend has accordingly increased by a hearty 26 per cent over the year to September 2018. 


This has largely been driven by gold and base metals, which in essence means great news for Western Australia above and beyond all other states and territories. 


Goldman sees commodity prices soaring in 2019; but needless to say they've been known to be wrong before.

GDP partials

Today's business indicators included further outperformance for company gross profits, in part driven by record high mining profits in the September quarter.


The trend for mining profits rose another 4.6 per cent in the quarter, with mining wages and salaries up by 1.5 per cent.

I hadn't intended to go down this path, but since I'm here now - total wages and salaries at current prices were up by 4.3 per cent over the year to September, so a looming Budget surplus is all but a shoo-in, at least temporarily.


Record profits are great to see; it would be even better to see that translating into higher pay packets!