Population growth still strong
The June quarter tends to be a quiet one for population increase, but over the course of FY2018 estimated population growth remained strong at 391,000 or +1.6 per cent, despite a moderate slowing of visa processing and net overseas migration.
Total births increased by 7,000 over the 2018 financial year, mainly due to a jump in New South Wales, although there have been processing lags and blips before.
In time this will set Australia up for its next property cycle as apartment construction slows dramatically over the next few years, but at the moment it's all about mortgage processing delays and mechanical minutiae.
New migrants from overseas are now dominated by young arrivals from China (83,000 in FY2018), India (67,000), and other Asian countries, and less so by permanent migrants from New Zealand, Britain, or other parts of Europe.
Of the 553,000 migrant arrivals in FY2018? Overwhelmingly they still headed for Greater Sydney (179,000), Melbourne (151,000), Brisbane (56,000), and Perth (48,000) respectively, with other parts of south-east Queensland capturing a fair chunk of the remainder.
The bulk of new migrants lie within the 18 to 34 years cohort, and some 85.4 per cent now opt to reside in the capital cities, and especially so Sydney (32.4 per cent) and Melbourne (27.3 per cent).
Internal shiftology
The bulk of new migrants lie within the 18 to 34 years cohort, and some 85.4 per cent now opt to reside in the capital cities, and especially so Sydney (32.4 per cent) and Melbourne (27.3 per cent).
Internal shiftology
There have, however, been some internal migration shifts over FY2018.
Interstate migration to Queensland increased to the highest level in a dozen years as incumbent Aussie residents moved away from the crowded capitals for the more affordable Sunshine State.
I'm hiding in that maroon line myself somewhere, albeit at the nadir of the cycle some years back.
I'm hiding in that maroon line myself somewhere, albeit at the nadir of the cycle some years back.
And while Melbourne is still capturing interstate migrants from South and Western Australia, this brain drain trend is now moderating from last year's unprecedented heights.
Totting that all up, then, the estimated growth in the respective resident populations of New South Wales (119,000) and Victoria (138,000 or 2.2 per cent) was still very high historically, but the extreme rates of growth seen in the preceding year have eased thanks to the factors noted above.
At 85,000 Queensland's population growth was at the highest level since 2013, while seasonally adjusted dwelling commencements in the state dropped sharply from 11,400 to 9,900 in the June 2018 quarter.
This signals a conclusive end to the record high rates of apartment construction that have dogged Brisbane landlords for the past few years.
This signals a conclusive end to the record high rates of apartment construction that have dogged Brisbane landlords for the past few years.
Indeed apartment construction is now slowing so sharply in Brisbane that trend vacancy rates in the city have been tightening steadily through most of 2018.
The wrap
There have been a few noises coming out of Canberra about tinkering with population policy, but by and large both main parties seemingly remain committed to so-termed 'Big Australia' levels of migration.
The estimated resident population of Australia passed 25 million just after the end of the 2018 financial year, and by the end of the calendar year that figure will be close to 200,000 higher, which gives some perspective on the absolute pace of population growth.
People evidently still want to live in Australia despite the weakening outlook.
Stock markets can't quite bring themselves to believe that we could be heading for a self-inflicted recession driven by the Royal Commission.
And yet with the ASX 200 having pulled back from 6,350 at the end of August to about 5,500 today, they are tentatively beginning to price themselves in that direction.
